SpaceX's record Falcon 9 reusability and relentless Starlink deployment cadence underpin the market's strong consensus around 140-159 total launches for 2026. With 103 Falcon missions completed by late August—including the 100th orbital flight and individual boosters reaching 37 flights— the fleet maintains a pace consistent with 2025's 165 launches while benefiting from proven turnaround times and high success rates. Continued Florida and California Starlink missions, alongside select crewed and rideshare flights, support this range, though plans to transition some deployments to Starship introduce modest uncertainty for the final months. Upcoming manifest updates from SpaceX and range scheduling will provide key signals for traders.