NASA and ESA near-Earth object surveys, including CNEOS monitoring and the Sentry system, report no known asteroids or meteoroids on collision trajectories capable of delivering 100 kilotons TNT-equivalent energy in 2026. This absence of detected threats underpins the market’s 94.4% implied probability for “No,” consistent with historical bolide frequencies of roughly one such event per few centuries. An early-2026 uptick in smaller fireballs produced only sub-threshold airbursts, none approaching the required size or velocity. Ongoing telescopic and radar updates through year-end will further constrain residual uncertainty from undiscovered objects, though realistic shifts would require a late-detected impactor with revised orbital data.