Comprehensive near-Earth object surveys by NASA and partner agencies have identified no asteroids on collision trajectories with Earth in 2026 that could release 100 kilotons of impact energy, consistent with the market-implied 93.8% probability for “No.” Ongoing telescopic monitoring and orbit calculations place the annual risk of an undetected object in this size range well below 1%, aligning with historical rates where events of this scale occur roughly once per several centuries. Recent increases in smaller fireball reports reflect seasonal observational peaks rather than any shift in larger-object flux. Continuous cataloging through programs like the NEO Surveyor and ground-based searches will further refine risk assessments through year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQueda de meteoro de 100kt em 2026?
Queda de meteoro de 100kt em 2026?
Sim
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
Sim
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Comprehensive near-Earth object surveys by NASA and partner agencies have identified no asteroids on collision trajectories with Earth in 2026 that could release 100 kilotons of impact energy, consistent with the market-implied 93.8% probability for “No.” Ongoing telescopic monitoring and orbit calculations place the annual risk of an undetected object in this size range well below 1%, aligning with historical rates where events of this scale occur roughly once per several centuries. Recent increases in smaller fireball reports reflect seasonal observational peaks rather than any shift in larger-object flux. Continuous cataloging through programs like the NEO Surveyor and ground-based searches will further refine risk assessments through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$7,870Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Comprehensive near-Earth object surveys by NASA and partner agencies have identified no asteroids on collision trajectories with Earth in 2026 that could release 100 kilotons of impact energy, consistent with the market-implied 93.8% probability for “No.” Ongoing telescopic monitoring and orbit calculations place the annual risk of an undetected object in this size range well below 1%, aligning with historical rates where events of this scale occur roughly once per several centuries. Recent increases in smaller fireball reports reflect seasonal observational peaks rather than any shift in larger-object flux. Continuous cataloging through programs like the NEO Surveyor and ground-based searches will further refine risk assessments through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$7,870Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Comprehensive near-Earth object surveys by NASA and partner agencies have identified no asteroids on collision trajectories with Earth in 2026 that could release 100 kilotons of impact energy, consistent with the market-implied 93.8% probability for “No.” Ongoing telescopic monitoring and orbit calculations place the annual risk of an undetected object in this size range well below 1%, aligning with historical rates where events of this scale occur roughly once per several centuries. Recent increases in smaller fireball reports reflect seasonal observational peaks rather than any shift in larger-object flux. Continuous cataloging through programs like the NEO Surveyor and ground-based searches will further refine risk assessments through year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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