NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA surveys report no known near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering a 100-kiloton airburst or ground impact in 2026, supporting the market’s 94.5% implied probability for “No.” Comprehensive optical, radar, and Sentry monitoring have ruled out objects large enough to produce that yield, consistent with historical bolide records showing such events occur only once every few centuries on average. A recent uptick in smaller fireballs has produced only sub-threshold airbursts. Ongoing Scout and CNEOS updates through year-end will further constrain any residual uncertainty from undiscovered objects, though an undetected impactor remains the primary scenario that could alter current trader consensus.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено100-тысячный метеоритный удар в 2026 году?
100-тысячный метеоритный удар в 2026 году?
Да
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA surveys report no known near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering a 100-kiloton airburst or ground impact in 2026, supporting the market’s 94.5% implied probability for “No.” Comprehensive optical, radar, and Sentry monitoring have ruled out objects large enough to produce that yield, consistent with historical bolide records showing such events occur only once every few centuries on average. A recent uptick in smaller fireballs has produced only sub-threshold airbursts. Ongoing Scout and CNEOS updates through year-end will further constrain any residual uncertainty from undiscovered objects, though an undetected impactor remains the primary scenario that could alter current trader consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Открытие рынка: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Объем
$7,871Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA surveys report no known near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering a 100-kiloton airburst or ground impact in 2026, supporting the market’s 94.5% implied probability for “No.” Comprehensive optical, radar, and Sentry monitoring have ruled out objects large enough to produce that yield, consistent with historical bolide records showing such events occur only once every few centuries on average. A recent uptick in smaller fireballs has produced only sub-threshold airbursts. Ongoing Scout and CNEOS updates through year-end will further constrain any residual uncertainty from undiscovered objects, though an undetected impactor remains the primary scenario that could alter current trader consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Объем
$7,871Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA surveys report no known near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering a 100-kiloton airburst or ground impact in 2026, supporting the market’s 94.5% implied probability for “No.” Comprehensive optical, radar, and Sentry monitoring have ruled out objects large enough to produce that yield, consistent with historical bolide records showing such events occur only once every few centuries on average. A recent uptick in smaller fireballs has produced only sub-threshold airbursts. Ongoing Scout and CNEOS updates through year-end will further constrain any residual uncertainty from undiscovered objects, though an undetected impactor remains the primary scenario that could alter current trader consensus.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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