**No at 96.1%** reflects the absence of any catalogued near-Earth asteroids on collision courses for 2026 that could release 100 kilotons or greater, per NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies and ESA risk lists. Planetary defense surveys have identified no objects large enough to produce such an airburst, and the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide database shows only rare historical precedents at this energy threshold. Smaller decameter-scale bodies capable of 100 kt events remain statistically infrequent, with annual probabilities typically estimated in the low single digits. Continued ground- and space-based monitoring through December, including infrared surveys, will further constrain any undetected impactors, though an untracked small meteoroid remains the primary low-probability pathway that could alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
4% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
4% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No at 96.1%** reflects the absence of any catalogued near-Earth asteroids on collision courses for 2026 that could release 100 kilotons or greater, per NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies and ESA risk lists. Planetary defense surveys have identified no objects large enough to produce such an airburst, and the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide database shows only rare historical precedents at this energy threshold. Smaller decameter-scale bodies capable of 100 kt events remain statistically infrequent, with annual probabilities typically estimated in the low single digits.
Continued ground- and space-based monitoring through December, including infrared surveys, will further constrain any undetected impactors, though an untracked small meteoroid remains the primary low-probability pathway that could alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$8,955End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No at 96.1%** reflects the absence of any catalogued near-Earth asteroids on collision courses for 2026 that could release 100 kilotons or greater, per NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies and ESA risk lists. Planetary defense surveys have identified no objects large enough to produce such an airburst, and the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide database shows only rare historical precedents at this energy threshold. Smaller decameter-scale bodies capable of 100 kt events remain statistically infrequent, with annual probabilities typically estimated in the low single digits.
Continued ground- and space-based monitoring through December, including infrared surveys, will further constrain any undetected impactors, though an untracked small meteoroid remains the primary low-probability pathway that could alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$8,955End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No at 96.1%** reflects the absence of any catalogued near-Earth asteroids on collision courses for 2026 that could release 100 kilotons or greater, per NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies and ESA risk lists. Planetary defense surveys have identified no objects large enough to produce such an airburst, and the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide database shows only rare historical precedents at this energy threshold. Smaller decameter-scale bodies capable of 100 kt events remain statistically infrequent, with annual probabilities typically estimated in the low single digits. Continued ground- and space-based monitoring through December, including infrared surveys, will further constrain any undetected impactors, though an untracked small meteoroid remains the primary low-probability pathway that could alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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