Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and global surveys has cataloged nearly all near-Earth objects capable of producing a 1-megaton airburst or impact, with none on trajectories intersecting Earth in 2026. This aligns with historical rates of roughly one such event every several decades for tens-of-meters objects, as seen in events like Tunguska (~10–15 Mt) or Chelyabinsk (~0.5 Mt). Sentry system assessments and ongoing optical/radar observations place cumulative risk far below 5%. A shift would require rapid discovery and confirmation of a new, undetected body with precise impact parameters before year-end, an outcome rendered improbable by current survey completeness.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour1 mégatonne de météorite en 2026 ?
1 mégatonne de météorite en 2026 ?
Oui
$110,031 Vol.
$110,031 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$110,031 Vol.
$110,031 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and global surveys has cataloged nearly all near-Earth objects capable of producing a 1-megaton airburst or impact, with none on trajectories intersecting Earth in 2026. This aligns with historical rates of roughly one such event every several decades for tens-of-meters objects, as seen in events like Tunguska (~10–15 Mt) or Chelyabinsk (~0.5 Mt). Sentry system assessments and ongoing optical/radar observations place cumulative risk far below 5%. A shift would require rapid discovery and confirmation of a new, undetected body with precise impact parameters before year-end, an outcome rendered improbable by current survey completeness.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Marché ouvert : Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$110,031Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and global surveys has cataloged nearly all near-Earth objects capable of producing a 1-megaton airburst or impact, with none on trajectories intersecting Earth in 2026. This aligns with historical rates of roughly one such event every several decades for tens-of-meters objects, as seen in events like Tunguska (~10–15 Mt) or Chelyabinsk (~0.5 Mt). Sentry system assessments and ongoing optical/radar observations place cumulative risk far below 5%. A shift would require rapid discovery and confirmation of a new, undetected body with precise impact parameters before year-end, an outcome rendered improbable by current survey completeness.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$110,031Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and global surveys has cataloged nearly all near-Earth objects capable of producing a 1-megaton airburst or impact, with none on trajectories intersecting Earth in 2026. This aligns with historical rates of roughly one such event every several decades for tens-of-meters objects, as seen in events like Tunguska (~10–15 Mt) or Chelyabinsk (~0.5 Mt). Sentry system assessments and ongoing optical/radar observations place cumulative risk far below 5%. A shift would require rapid discovery and confirmation of a new, undetected body with precise impact parameters before year-end, an outcome rendered improbable by current survey completeness.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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