Seasonal influenza patterns drive the near-certain 99.7% market-implied probability for the 85–90 hospitalization rate band in Week 22, 2026. By late May to early June, flu activity typically declines sharply after winter peaks due to warmer temperatures, higher humidity, reduced indoor crowding, and population immunity buildup, as tracked by CDC FluSurv-NET surveillance. Official 2025–2026 season data show consistent drops in laboratory-confirmed admissions and percent positivity through spring, aligning with historical baselines where summer rates fall to minimal levels. Ensemble forecasts from late May further support stable or negligible new admissions into mid-June. While revisions in reporting or rare off-season outbreaks could shift outcomes, the strong scientific consensus on seasonal dynamics and real-time monitoring data underpin trader confidence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlu Hospitalization Rate Week 22, 2026?
Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 22, 2026?
85–90 99.7%
<80 <1%
80–85 <1%
90–95 <1%
$4,874 Vol.
$4,874 Vol.
Jun 12, 2026
<80
No
80–85
No
85–90
Yes
90–95
No
95–100
No
100+
No
85–90 99.7%
<80 <1%
80–85 <1%
90–95 <1%
$4,874 Vol.
$4,874 Vol.
Jun 12, 2026
<80
$530 Vol.
No
80–85
$536 Vol.
No
85–90
$2,267 Vol.
Yes
90–95
$543 Vol.
No
95–100
$497 Vol.
No
100+
$500 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.Seasonal influenza patterns drive the near-certain 99.7% market-implied probability for the 85–90 hospitalization rate band in Week 22, 2026. By late May to early June, flu activity typically declines sharply after winter peaks due to warmer temperatures, higher humidity, reduced indoor crowding, and population immunity buildup, as tracked by CDC FluSurv-NET surveillance. Official 2025–2026 season data show consistent drops in laboratory-confirmed admissions and percent positivity through spring, aligning with historical baselines where summer rates fall to minimal levels. Ensemble forecasts from late May further support stable or negligible new admissions into mid-June. While revisions in reporting or rare off-season outbreaks could shift outcomes, the strong scientific consensus on seasonal dynamics and real-time monitoring data underpin trader confidence.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Market Opened: Jun 5, 2026, 3:37 PM ET
Volume
$4,874End Date
Jun 12, 2026Market Opened
Jun 5, 2026, 3:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.Seasonal influenza patterns drive the near-certain 99.7% market-implied probability for the 85–90 hospitalization rate band in Week 22, 2026. By late May to early June, flu activity typically declines sharply after winter peaks due to warmer temperatures, higher humidity, reduced indoor crowding, and population immunity buildup, as tracked by CDC FluSurv-NET surveillance. Official 2025–2026 season data show consistent drops in laboratory-confirmed admissions and percent positivity through spring, aligning with historical baselines where summer rates fall to minimal levels. Ensemble forecasts from late May further support stable or negligible new admissions into mid-June. While revisions in reporting or rare off-season outbreaks could shift outcomes, the strong scientific consensus on seasonal dynamics and real-time monitoring data underpin trader confidence.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Volume
$4,874End Date
Jun 12, 2026Market Opened
Jun 5, 2026, 3:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Seasonal influenza patterns drive the near-certain 99.7% market-implied probability for the 85–90 hospitalization rate band in Week 22, 2026. By late May to early June, flu activity typically declines sharply after winter peaks due to warmer temperatures, higher humidity, reduced indoor crowding, and population immunity buildup, as tracked by CDC FluSurv-NET surveillance. Official 2025–2026 season data show consistent drops in laboratory-confirmed admissions and percent positivity through spring, aligning with historical baselines where summer rates fall to minimal levels. Ensemble forecasts from late May further support stable or negligible new admissions into mid-June. While revisions in reporting or rare off-season outbreaks could shift outcomes, the strong scientific consensus on seasonal dynamics and real-time monitoring data underpin trader confidence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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