Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological models indicate peak temperatures in Beijing on July 4 will most likely fall in the 33–36°C range, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those outcomes. Typical early-July conditions feature strong solar heating under subtropical high pressure, moderated by variable monsoon moisture and possible afternoon thunderstorms that limit daytime maxima. Historical climatology shows July averages near 31–32°C, with urban heat-island effects and weak synoptic forcing occasionally pushing readings 2–4°C higher. Updated model runs over the past 48 hours have narrowed uncertainty by incorporating recent surface observations and steering-pattern shifts, keeping higher extremes (38°C+) at low probabilities due to expected cloud cover and precipitation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Beijing on July 4?
Highest temperature in Beijing on July 4?
35°C 49%
34°C 29%
36°C 16%
33°C 4.5%
最新
$25,702 交易量
最新
$25,702 交易量
2026-07-04
31°C or below
1%
32°C
2%
33°C
5%
34°C
29%
35°C
49%
36°C
16%
37°C
4%
38°C
1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
35°C 49%
34°C 29%
36°C 16%
33°C 4.5%
最新
$25,702 交易量
最新
$25,702 交易量
2026-07-04
31°C or below
$1,510 交易量
1%
32°C
$542 交易量
2%
33°C
$569 交易量
5%
34°C
$1,030 交易量
29%
35°C
$5,481 交易量
49%
36°C
$1,916 交易量
16%
37°C
$1,822 交易量
4%
38°C
$1,799 交易量
1%
39°C
$1,591 交易量
<1%
40°C
$5,330 交易量
<1%
41°C or higher
$4,111 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological models indicate peak temperatures in Beijing on July 4 will most likely fall in the 33–36°C range, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those outcomes. Typical early-July conditions feature strong solar heating under subtropical high pressure, moderated by variable monsoon moisture and possible afternoon thunderstorms that limit daytime maxima. Historical climatology shows July averages near 31–32°C, with urban heat-island effects and weak synoptic forcing occasionally pushing readings 2–4°C higher. Updated model runs over the past 48 hours have narrowed uncertainty by incorporating recent surface observations and steering-pattern shifts, keeping higher extremes (38°C+) at low probabilities due to expected cloud cover and precipitation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$25,702結束日期
2026-07-04市場開放時間
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological models indicate peak temperatures in Beijing on July 4 will most likely fall in the 33–36°C range, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those outcomes. Typical early-July conditions feature strong solar heating under subtropical high pressure, moderated by variable monsoon moisture and possible afternoon thunderstorms that limit daytime maxima. Historical climatology shows July averages near 31–32°C, with urban heat-island effects and weak synoptic forcing occasionally pushing readings 2–4°C higher. Updated model runs over the past 48 hours have narrowed uncertainty by incorporating recent surface observations and steering-pattern shifts, keeping higher extremes (38°C+) at low probabilities due to expected cloud cover and precipitation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$25,702結束日期
2026-07-04市場開放時間
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETRecent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological models indicate peak temperatures in Beijing on July 4 will most likely fall in the 33–36°C range, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those outcomes. Typical early-July conditions feature strong solar heating under subtropical high pressure, moderated by variable monsoon moisture and possible afternoon thunderstorms that limit daytime maxima. Historical climatology shows July averages near 31–32°C, with urban heat-island effects and weak synoptic forcing occasionally pushing readings 2–4°C higher. Updated model runs over the past 48 hours have narrowed uncertainty by incorporating recent surface observations and steering-pattern shifts, keeping higher extremes (38°C+) at low probabilities due to expected cloud cover and precipitation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions