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icon for 2026年漢坦病毒大流行？

2026年漢坦病毒大流行？

icon for 2026年漢坦病毒大流行？

2026年漢坦病毒大流行？

是

4% 機率
Polymarket

$17,852,995 交易量

是

4% 機率
Polymarket

$17,852,995 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favoring no hantavirus pandemic in 2026 rests on the biology of Andes virus and other hantaviruses, which spread mainly through rodent excreta rather than sustained airborne or casual human contact, limiting epidemic potential even when person-to-person transmission occurs in close settings. The May 2026 cruise-ship cluster aboard the MV Hondius produced only 12 confirmed cases and three deaths before rapid containment and official closure in July, with no secondary community spread or U.S. importations despite international passenger movement. Official surveillance from CDC and WHO through mid-August shows zero ongoing chains of transmission and extremely low general-population risk. A realistic shift would require emergence of a novel, highly transmissible strain or repeated large-scale exposures that overwhelm containment—scenarios unsupported by current epidemiological data or model projections.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$17,852,995
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favoring no hantavirus pandemic in 2026 rests on the biology of Andes virus and other hantaviruses, which spread mainly through rodent excreta rather than sustained airborne or casual human contact, limiting epidemic potential even when person-to-person transmission occurs in close settings. The May 2026 cruise-ship cluster aboard the MV Hondius produced only 12 confirmed cases and three deaths before rapid containment and official closure in July, with no secondary community spread or U.S. importations despite international passenger movement. Official surveillance from CDC and WHO through mid-August shows zero ongoing chains of transmission and extremely low general-population risk. A realistic shift would require emergence of a novel, highly transmissible strain or repeated large-scale exposures that overwhelm containment—scenarios unsupported by current epidemiological data or model projections.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$17,852,995
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年漢坦病毒大流行？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2026年會有漢他病毒大流行嗎？" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 4¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 4% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年漢坦病毒大流行？" has generated $17.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on May 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年漢坦病毒大流行？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "2026年漢坦病毒大流行？" is "2026年會有漢他病毒大流行嗎？" at just 4%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "2026年漢坦病毒大流行？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.