Latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 17 call for mostly cloudy skies with occasional scattered showers and a maximum of 31°C, aligning closely with the daily normal of 31.4°C. This supports the market's emphasis on 29–31°C outcomes, as cloud cover and precipitation potential from a weakening Pacific high-pressure system can cap daytime heating and introduce model variability in peak readings. Recent short-range guidance from sources like the Met Office and BBC similarly points to 31°C highs amid moderate humidity and light winds, though urban heat island effects in central Tokyo could push localized measurements higher if sunshine breaks through. Traders appear to weigh the balance between typical midsummer warmth and the tempering influence of showers expected during the peak heating window. Updated JMA briefings and afternoon model runs will likely refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月17日東京氣溫最高？
8月17日東京氣溫最高？
30°C 40%
29°C 28%
31°C 12%
28°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-17
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
4%
28°C
10%
29°C
28%
30°C
40%
31°C
12%
32°C
4%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
<1%
30°C 40%
29°C 28%
31°C 12%
28°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-17
24°C or below
$738 交易量
<1%
25°C
$262 交易量
<1%
26°C
$69 交易量
1%
27°C
$342 交易量
4%
28°C
$229 交易量
10%
29°C
$204 交易量
28%
30°C
$884 交易量
40%
31°C
$187 交易量
12%
32°C
$131 交易量
4%
33°C
$127 交易量
1%
34°C or higher
$114 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 17 call for mostly cloudy skies with occasional scattered showers and a maximum of 31°C, aligning closely with the daily normal of 31.4°C. This supports the market's emphasis on 29–31°C outcomes, as cloud cover and precipitation potential from a weakening Pacific high-pressure system can cap daytime heating and introduce model variability in peak readings. Recent short-range guidance from sources like the Met Office and BBC similarly points to 31°C highs amid moderate humidity and light winds, though urban heat island effects in central Tokyo could push localized measurements higher if sunshine breaks through. Traders appear to weigh the balance between typical midsummer warmth and the tempering influence of showers expected during the peak heating window. Updated JMA briefings and afternoon model runs will likely refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 15, 2026, 4:05 PM ET
交易量
$2,985結束日期
2026-08-17市場開放時間
Aug 15, 2026, 4:05 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 17 call for mostly cloudy skies with occasional scattered showers and a maximum of 31°C, aligning closely with the daily normal of 31.4°C. This supports the market's emphasis on 29–31°C outcomes, as cloud cover and precipitation potential from a weakening Pacific high-pressure system can cap daytime heating and introduce model variability in peak readings. Recent short-range guidance from sources like the Met Office and BBC similarly points to 31°C highs amid moderate humidity and light winds, though urban heat island effects in central Tokyo could push localized measurements higher if sunshine breaks through. Traders appear to weigh the balance between typical midsummer warmth and the tempering influence of showers expected during the peak heating window. Updated JMA briefings and afternoon model runs will likely refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,985結束日期
2026-08-17市場開放時間
Aug 15, 2026, 4:05 PM ETLatest Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 17 call for mostly cloudy skies with occasional scattered showers and a maximum of 31°C, aligning closely with the daily normal of 31.4°C. This supports the market's emphasis on 29–31°C outcomes, as cloud cover and precipitation potential from a weakening Pacific high-pressure system can cap daytime heating and introduce model variability in peak readings. Recent short-range guidance from sources like the Met Office and BBC similarly points to 31°C highs amid moderate humidity and light winds, though urban heat island effects in central Tokyo could push localized measurements higher if sunshine breaks through. Traders appear to weigh the balance between typical midsummer warmth and the tempering influence of showers expected during the peak heating window. Updated JMA briefings and afternoon model runs will likely refine these implied probabilities ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions