Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a daily maximum of 29–31°C in Shanghai on August 16, reflecting model consensus for typical late-summer subtropical monsoon conditions with afternoon convective showers or thunderstorms that often cap peak readings. Recent extended forecasts from multiple sources project highs near 31–34°C amid high humidity and variable cloud cover, with precipitation chances (30–60% in some runs) introducing downside risk to temperatures. This aligns with climatological baselines for mid-August, when sea breezes and urban heat-island effects interact with potential weak frontal or tropical moisture influences to moderate extremes. Updated short-range guidance over the next 48 hours will be key, as revisions in timing or intensity of showers could shift resolution toward the 30°C outcome currently leading at 39.5%.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月16日上海最高溫度？
8月16日上海最高溫度？
30°C 40%
29°C 26%
31°C 25%
32°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-08-16
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
5%
29°C
26%
30°C
40%
31°C
25%
32°C
7%
33°C
3%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 40%
29°C 26%
31°C 25%
32°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-08-16
25°C or below
$324 交易量
<1%
26°C
$26 交易量
<1%
27°C
$174 交易量
2%
28°C
$235 交易量
5%
29°C
$194 交易量
26%
30°C
$111 交易量
40%
31°C
$476 交易量
25%
32°C
$513 交易量
7%
33°C
$193 交易量
3%
34°C
$19 交易量
1%
35°C or higher
$39 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a daily maximum of 29–31°C in Shanghai on August 16, reflecting model consensus for typical late-summer subtropical monsoon conditions with afternoon convective showers or thunderstorms that often cap peak readings. Recent extended forecasts from multiple sources project highs near 31–34°C amid high humidity and variable cloud cover, with precipitation chances (30–60% in some runs) introducing downside risk to temperatures. This aligns with climatological baselines for mid-August, when sea breezes and urban heat-island effects interact with potential weak frontal or tropical moisture influences to moderate extremes. Updated short-range guidance over the next 48 hours will be key, as revisions in timing or intensity of showers could shift resolution toward the 30°C outcome currently leading at 39.5%.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$2,303結束日期
2026-08-16市場開放時間
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a daily maximum of 29–31°C in Shanghai on August 16, reflecting model consensus for typical late-summer subtropical monsoon conditions with afternoon convective showers or thunderstorms that often cap peak readings. Recent extended forecasts from multiple sources project highs near 31–34°C amid high humidity and variable cloud cover, with precipitation chances (30–60% in some runs) introducing downside risk to temperatures. This aligns with climatological baselines for mid-August, when sea breezes and urban heat-island effects interact with potential weak frontal or tropical moisture influences to moderate extremes. Updated short-range guidance over the next 48 hours will be key, as revisions in timing or intensity of showers could shift resolution toward the 30°C outcome currently leading at 39.5%.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,303結束日期
2026-08-16市場開放時間
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETTraders assign the highest implied probabilities to a daily maximum of 29–31°C in Shanghai on August 16, reflecting model consensus for typical late-summer subtropical monsoon conditions with afternoon convective showers or thunderstorms that often cap peak readings. Recent extended forecasts from multiple sources project highs near 31–34°C amid high humidity and variable cloud cover, with precipitation chances (30–60% in some runs) introducing downside risk to temperatures. This aligns with climatological baselines for mid-August, when sea breezes and urban heat-island effects interact with potential weak frontal or tropical moisture influences to moderate extremes. Updated short-range guidance over the next 48 hours will be key, as revisions in timing or intensity of showers could shift resolution toward the 30°C outcome currently leading at 39.5%.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions