SpaceX’s accelerating Starship V3 test campaign, highlighted by consecutive Super Heavy booster tower catches and the first intact upper-stage recovery after Flight 13, underpins the 65.5% market-implied odds for full reusability before 2028. Recent heat-shield upgrades, Raptor 3 engine refinements, and tile-reuse demonstrations have improved reentry survivability, while Flight 14’s targeted September 22 orbital attempt with Starlink V3 deployment marks the next step toward demonstrating both stages’ catch-and-reflight capability. Traders weigh these engineering milestones against the remaining challenges of rapid ship turnaround and regulatory timelines, viewing 2027 as the probable window for closing the reusability loop.