Google’s prolonged delays on the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro—teased at I/O 2026 for a June debut, then slipped through July and August—drive the market’s clustering around early October dates, with October 2 holding the highest implied probability. Traders cite ongoing partner testing, shortfalls in coding and long-horizon agent performance, and incorporation of Flash 3.8 feedback as reasons for the extended timeline, while Google’s recent September releases of lighter 3.8 Flash variants and confirmation of Gemini 4 pre-training underscore a cautious, iterative approach. Competitive pressure from rivals and Google’s historical pattern of conservative flagship rollouts further shape sentiment, with any API changelog update or developer event serving as the next potential catalyst before month-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於10 月 16 日 47%
10 月 19 日 46%
10 月 24 日 27%
10 月 18 日 24%
最新
最新
2026-10-01
在 10 月 1 日或之前
12%
10 月 2 日
1%
10 月 3 日
5%
10 月 4 日
5%
10 月 5 日
1%
10 月 6 日
7%
10 月 7 日
14%
10 月 8 日
9%
10 月 9 日
1%
10 月 10 日
5%
10 月 11 日
9%
10 月 12 日
9%
10 月 13 日
12%
10 月 14 日
5%
10 月 15 日
5%
10 月 16 日
47%
10 月 17 日
5%
10 月 18 日
24%
10 月 19 日
46%
10 月 20 日
24%
10 月 21 日
5%
10 月 22 日
7%
10 月 23 日
6%
10 月 24 日
27%
10 月 25 日
5%
10 月 26 日
7%
10 月 27 日
13%
10 月 28 日
5%
10 月 29 日
13%
10 月 30 日
6%
10月31日
5%
截至10月31日無發佈
7%
10 月 16 日 47%
10 月 19 日 46%
10 月 24 日 27%
10 月 18 日 24%
最新
最新
2026-10-01
在 10 月 1 日或之前
$58 交易量
12%
10 月 2 日
$39 交易量
1%
10 月 3 日
$50 交易量
5%
10 月 4 日
$50 交易量
5%
10 月 5 日
$39 交易量
1%
10 月 6 日
$50 交易量
7%
10 月 7 日
$50 交易量
14%
10 月 8 日
$50 交易量
9%
10 月 9 日
$39 交易量
1%
10 月 10 日
$50 交易量
5%
10 月 11 日
$50 交易量
9%
10 月 12 日
$50 交易量
9%
10 月 13 日
$50 交易量
12%
10 月 14 日
$50 交易量
5%
10 月 15 日
$50 交易量
5%
10 月 16 日
$42 交易量
47%
10 月 17 日
$50 交易量
5%
10 月 18 日
$42 交易量
24%
10 月 19 日
$42 交易量
46%
10 月 20 日
$42 交易量
24%
10 月 21 日
$53 交易量
5%
10 月 22 日
$50 交易量
7%
10 月 23 日
$50 交易量
6%
10 月 24 日
$42 交易量
27%
10 月 25 日
$50 交易量
5%
10 月 26 日
$50 交易量
7%
10 月 27 日
$42 交易量
13%
10 月 28 日
$50 交易量
5%
10 月 29 日
$50 交易量
13%
10 月 30 日
$50 交易量
6%
10月31日
$50 交易量
5%
截至10月31日無發佈
$55 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s prolonged delays on the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro—teased at I/O 2026 for a June debut, then slipped through July and August—drive the market’s clustering around early October dates, with October 2 holding the highest implied probability. Traders cite ongoing partner testing, shortfalls in coding and long-horizon agent performance, and incorporation of Flash 3.8 feedback as reasons for the extended timeline, while Google’s recent September releases of lighter 3.8 Flash variants and confirmation of Gemini 4 pre-training underscore a cautious, iterative approach. Competitive pressure from rivals and Google’s historical pattern of conservative flagship rollouts further shape sentiment, with any API changelog update or developer event serving as the next potential catalyst before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Sep 22, 2026, 4:14 PM ET
交易量
$1,537結束日期
2026-10-31市場開放時間
Sep 22, 2026, 4:14 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s prolonged delays on the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro—teased at I/O 2026 for a June debut, then slipped through July and August—drive the market’s clustering around early October dates, with October 2 holding the highest implied probability. Traders cite ongoing partner testing, shortfalls in coding and long-horizon agent performance, and incorporation of Flash 3.8 feedback as reasons for the extended timeline, while Google’s recent September releases of lighter 3.8 Flash variants and confirmation of Gemini 4 pre-training underscore a cautious, iterative approach. Competitive pressure from rivals and Google’s historical pattern of conservative flagship rollouts further shape sentiment, with any API changelog update or developer event serving as the next potential catalyst before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,537結束日期
2026-10-31市場開放時間
Sep 22, 2026, 4:14 PM ETGoogle’s prolonged delays on the flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro—teased at I/O 2026 for a June debut, then slipped through July and August—drive the market’s clustering around early October dates, with October 2 holding the highest implied probability. Traders cite ongoing partner testing, shortfalls in coding and long-horizon agent performance, and incorporation of Flash 3.8 feedback as reasons for the extended timeline, while Google’s recent September releases of lighter 3.8 Flash variants and confirmation of Gemini 4 pre-training underscore a cautious, iterative approach. Competitive pressure from rivals and Google’s historical pattern of conservative flagship rollouts further shape sentiment, with any API changelog update or developer event serving as the next potential catalyst before month-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions