Anthropic’s early September release of Claude Fable 5.1 established it as the current leader on major benchmarks for coding, long-horizon agentic tasks, and knowledge work, driving the 50% implied probability traders assign to its max variant by October 5. The model’s strong results on evaluations like Terminal-Bench and FrontierCode, combined with its positioning as the most capable widely available large language model, underpin that consensus. Today’s launch of Claude Opus 5.5, which matches Fable 5.1 performance on most workloads at roughly 40% lower cost, has introduced some uncertainty reflected in the 32.5% “Other” share, yet has not displaced Fable in trader sentiment. Lower probabilities on earlier Opus variants highlight the rapid iteration cycle, with any new benchmark updates or additional releases before resolution likely to influence final odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於claude-fable-5.1-max 50%
其他 39%
claude-opus-5-high 8%
claude-opus-4-6-high 8%
最新
最新
2026-10-05
claude-fable-5.1-max
50%
其他
45%
claude-opus-5-high
8%
claude-opus-4-6-high
8%
claude-opus-5-max
7%
claude-fable-5.1-max 50%
其他 39%
claude-opus-5-high 8%
claude-opus-4-6-high 8%
最新
最新
2026-10-05
claude-fable-5.1-max
$99 交易量
50%
其他
$106 交易量
45%
claude-opus-5-high
$0 交易量
8%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$30 交易量
8%
claude-opus-5-max
$32 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s early September release of Claude Fable 5.1 established it as the current leader on major benchmarks for coding, long-horizon agentic tasks, and knowledge work, driving the 50% implied probability traders assign to its max variant by October 5. The model’s strong results on evaluations like Terminal-Bench and FrontierCode, combined with its positioning as the most capable widely available large language model, underpin that consensus. Today’s launch of Claude Opus 5.5, which matches Fable 5.1 performance on most workloads at roughly 40% lower cost, has introduced some uncertainty reflected in the 32.5% “Other” share, yet has not displaced Fable in trader sentiment. Lower probabilities on earlier Opus variants highlight the rapid iteration cycle, with any new benchmark updates or additional releases before resolution likely to influence final odds.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Sep 22, 2026, 10:42 AM ET
交易量
$266結束日期
2026-10-05市場開放時間
Sep 22, 2026, 10:42 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s early September release of Claude Fable 5.1 established it as the current leader on major benchmarks for coding, long-horizon agentic tasks, and knowledge work, driving the 50% implied probability traders assign to its max variant by October 5. The model’s strong results on evaluations like Terminal-Bench and FrontierCode, combined with its positioning as the most capable widely available large language model, underpin that consensus. Today’s launch of Claude Opus 5.5, which matches Fable 5.1 performance on most workloads at roughly 40% lower cost, has introduced some uncertainty reflected in the 32.5% “Other” share, yet has not displaced Fable in trader sentiment. Lower probabilities on earlier Opus variants highlight the rapid iteration cycle, with any new benchmark updates or additional releases before resolution likely to influence final odds.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$266結束日期
2026-10-05市場開放時間
Sep 22, 2026, 10:42 AM ETAnthropic’s early September release of Claude Fable 5.1 established it as the current leader on major benchmarks for coding, long-horizon agentic tasks, and knowledge work, driving the 50% implied probability traders assign to its max variant by October 5. The model’s strong results on evaluations like Terminal-Bench and FrontierCode, combined with its positioning as the most capable widely available large language model, underpin that consensus. Today’s launch of Claude Opus 5.5, which matches Fable 5.1 performance on most workloads at roughly 40% lower cost, has introduced some uncertainty reflected in the 32.5% “Other” share, yet has not displaced Fable in trader sentiment. Lower probabilities on earlier Opus variants highlight the rapid iteration cycle, with any new benchmark updates or additional releases before resolution likely to influence final odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions