Both OpenAI and Anthropic have publicly detailed accelerating progress toward recursive self-improvement, where AI systems autonomously design, code, and train more capable successors. Anthropic’s June 2026 report showed Claude authoring over 80% of merged production code and running end-to-end research loops, while OpenAI’s July GPT-5.6 release introduced an RSI Index tracking automated research tasks and its September statements from chief scientist Jakub Pachocki highlighted faster-than-expected advances. Recent executive calls for voluntary slowdowns, researcher resignations citing safety risks, and internal benchmarks of AI-driven experimentation reflect the labs’ focus on this capability amid competitive pressures. Full autonomous RSI remains unannounced, with both firms stressing human oversight persists and timelines for any public declaration depend on verifiable milestones rather than internal prototypes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
2026-10-31
2026 年 10 月 31 日
6%
2026 年 12 月 31 日
39%
$1,380 交易量
2026 年 10 月 31 日
$684 交易量
6%
2026 年 12 月 31 日
$696 交易量
39%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Both OpenAI and Anthropic have publicly detailed accelerating progress toward recursive self-improvement, where AI systems autonomously design, code, and train more capable successors. Anthropic’s June 2026 report showed Claude authoring over 80% of merged production code and running end-to-end research loops, while OpenAI’s July GPT-5.6 release introduced an RSI Index tracking automated research tasks and its September statements from chief scientist Jakub Pachocki highlighted faster-than-expected advances. Recent executive calls for voluntary slowdowns, researcher resignations citing safety risks, and internal benchmarks of AI-driven experimentation reflect the labs’ focus on this capability amid competitive pressures. Full autonomous RSI remains unannounced, with both firms stressing human oversight persists and timelines for any public declaration depend on verifiable milestones rather than internal prototypes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ET
交易量
$1,380結束日期
2028-01-01市場開放時間
Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Both OpenAI and Anthropic have publicly detailed accelerating progress toward recursive self-improvement, where AI systems autonomously design, code, and train more capable successors. Anthropic’s June 2026 report showed Claude authoring over 80% of merged production code and running end-to-end research loops, while OpenAI’s July GPT-5.6 release introduced an RSI Index tracking automated research tasks and its September statements from chief scientist Jakub Pachocki highlighted faster-than-expected advances. Recent executive calls for voluntary slowdowns, researcher resignations citing safety risks, and internal benchmarks of AI-driven experimentation reflect the labs’ focus on this capability amid competitive pressures. Full autonomous RSI remains unannounced, with both firms stressing human oversight persists and timelines for any public declaration depend on verifiable milestones rather than internal prototypes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$1,380結束日期
2028-01-01市場開放時間
Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ETBoth OpenAI and Anthropic have publicly detailed accelerating progress toward recursive self-improvement, where AI systems autonomously design, code, and train more capable successors. Anthropic’s June 2026 report showed Claude authoring over 80% of merged production code and running end-to-end research loops, while OpenAI’s July GPT-5.6 release introduced an RSI Index tracking automated research tasks and its September statements from chief scientist Jakub Pachocki highlighted faster-than-expected advances. Recent executive calls for voluntary slowdowns, researcher resignations citing safety risks, and internal benchmarks of AI-driven experimentation reflect the labs’ focus on this capability amid competitive pressures. Full autonomous RSI remains unannounced, with both firms stressing human oversight persists and timelines for any public declaration depend on verifiable milestones rather than internal prototypes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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