Recent rumors of an imminent Claude Opus 5.2 release, including credible reports pointing to September 17 or 18, have concentrated trader sentiment around the middle of the month, aligning with Anthropic’s pattern of frequent Opus updates following the July 24 launch of Opus 5. The company’s rapid cadence—Opus 4.8 arrived in late May, then Opus 5 two months later—combined with the September 1 rollout of Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, supports expectations for another high-capability large language model iteration soon. Uncertainty over exact timing stems from the absence of an official announcement or system card, while competitive pressure from other frontier labs and historical release windows keep probabilities spread across late September dates rather than a single dominant outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月24日 29%
9月29日 20%
9月22日 19%
9月25日 14%
9 月 17 日
3%
9 月 18 日
4%
9月19日
1%
9 月 20 日
3%
9月21日
4%
9月22日
19%
9月23日
8%
9月24日
29%
9月25日
14%
9 月 26 日
<1%
9月27日
<1%
9 月 28 日
6%
9月29日
20%
9月30日
12%
在2026年9月30日之前不發布
11%
9月24日 29%
9月29日 20%
9月22日 19%
9月25日 14%
9 月 17 日
3%
9 月 18 日
4%
9月19日
1%
9 月 20 日
3%
9月21日
4%
9月22日
19%
9月23日
8%
9月24日
29%
9月25日
14%
9 月 26 日
<1%
9月27日
<1%
9 月 28 日
6%
9月29日
20%
9月30日
12%
在2026年9月30日之前不發布
11%
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間: Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Recent rumors of an imminent Claude Opus 5.2 release, including credible reports pointing to September 17 or 18, have concentrated trader sentiment around the middle of the month, aligning with Anthropic’s pattern of frequent Opus updates following the July 24 launch of Opus 5. The company’s rapid cadence—Opus 4.8 arrived in late May, then Opus 5 two months later—combined with the September 1 rollout of Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, supports expectations for another high-capability large language model iteration soon. Uncertainty over exact timing stems from the absence of an official announcement or system card, while competitive pressure from other frontier labs and historical release windows keep probabilities spread across late September dates rather than a single dominant outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions