Meta's internal codename "Watermelon" for its next frontier large language model has drawn trader attention due to July 2026 statements from Superintelligence Labs chief Alexandr Wang that the model, still in training, matches OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on undisclosed benchmarks while using roughly 10x the compute of its Muse Spark predecessor. Reports from late August point to an October 2026 target release tied to Meta's Hatch agent platform and broader consumer AI push, backed by heavy infrastructure spending exceeding $125 billion this year. No public launch or independent verification has occurred as of early September, leaving outcomes sensitive to any confirmed rollout, benchmark releases, or delays amid competition from OpenAI and Anthropic models.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
2026-09-30
9 月 30 日
14%
10 月 31 日
63%
11 月 30 日
75%
$60 交易量
9 月 30 日
$20 交易量
14%
10 月 31 日
$0 交易量
63%
11 月 30 日
$40 交易量
75%
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's internal codename "Watermelon" for its next frontier large language model has drawn trader attention due to July 2026 statements from Superintelligence Labs chief Alexandr Wang that the model, still in training, matches OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on undisclosed benchmarks while using roughly 10x the compute of its Muse Spark predecessor. Reports from late August point to an October 2026 target release tied to Meta's Hatch agent platform and broader consumer AI push, backed by heavy infrastructure spending exceeding $125 billion this year. No public launch or independent verification has occurred as of early September, leaving outcomes sensitive to any confirmed rollout, benchmark releases, or delays amid competition from OpenAI and Anthropic models.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
交易量
$60結束日期
2026-11-30市場開放時間
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETOn September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's internal codename "Watermelon" for its next frontier large language model has drawn trader attention due to July 2026 statements from Superintelligence Labs chief Alexandr Wang that the model, still in training, matches OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on undisclosed benchmarks while using roughly 10x the compute of its Muse Spark predecessor. Reports from late August point to an October 2026 target release tied to Meta's Hatch agent platform and broader consumer AI push, backed by heavy infrastructure spending exceeding $125 billion this year. No public launch or independent verification has occurred as of early September, leaving outcomes sensitive to any confirmed rollout, benchmark releases, or delays amid competition from OpenAI and Anthropic models.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$60結束日期
2026-11-30市場開放時間
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETMeta's internal codename "Watermelon" for its next frontier large language model has drawn trader attention due to July 2026 statements from Superintelligence Labs chief Alexandr Wang that the model, still in training, matches OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on undisclosed benchmarks while using roughly 10x the compute of its Muse Spark predecessor. Reports from late August point to an October 2026 target release tied to Meta's Hatch agent platform and broader consumer AI push, backed by heavy infrastructure spending exceeding $125 billion this year. No public launch or independent verification has occurred as of early September, leaving outcomes sensitive to any confirmed rollout, benchmark releases, or delays amid competition from OpenAI and Anthropic models.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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