Recent releases of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 and GPT-6 Astra on September 3 have intensified competition for the top spot heading into mid-month, with Fable 5.1 claiming the highest Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score at 66 while the new OpenAI model posts standout results on ARC-AGI-3 and agentic benchmarks. Traders assign the largest share to "Other" because the rapid succession of frontier updates from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google creates uncertainty over which large language model will lead independent leaderboards or arena evaluations by September 14. Claude Opus 5 variants retain meaningful implied probability due to their strong verified coding and knowledge-work performance at lower cost, yet the market reflects caution that a fresh GPT-6 release or Gemini 3.8 variant could shift the ranking before resolution. Proximity to the snapshot date amplifies sensitivity to any new benchmark data or capability demonstrations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於其他 62%
claude-fable-5.1-max 28%
claude-opus-5-max 22%
claude-opus-5-high 19%
最新
最新
2026-09-14
其他
62%
claude-fable-5.1-max
28%
claude-opus-5-max
22%
claude-opus-5-high
19%
claude-opus-4-6-high
14%
其他 62%
claude-fable-5.1-max 28%
claude-opus-5-max 22%
claude-opus-5-high 19%
最新
最新
2026-09-14
其他
$80 交易量
62%
claude-fable-5.1-max
$428 交易量
28%
claude-opus-5-max
$40 交易量
22%
claude-opus-5-high
$40 交易量
19%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$85 交易量
14%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent releases of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 and GPT-6 Astra on September 3 have intensified competition for the top spot heading into mid-month, with Fable 5.1 claiming the highest Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score at 66 while the new OpenAI model posts standout results on ARC-AGI-3 and agentic benchmarks. Traders assign the largest share to "Other" because the rapid succession of frontier updates from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google creates uncertainty over which large language model will lead independent leaderboards or arena evaluations by September 14. Claude Opus 5 variants retain meaningful implied probability due to their strong verified coding and knowledge-work performance at lower cost, yet the market reflects caution that a fresh GPT-6 release or Gemini 3.8 variant could shift the ranking before resolution. Proximity to the snapshot date amplifies sensitivity to any new benchmark data or capability demonstrations.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ET
交易量
$673結束日期
2026-09-14市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent releases of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 and GPT-6 Astra on September 3 have intensified competition for the top spot heading into mid-month, with Fable 5.1 claiming the highest Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score at 66 while the new OpenAI model posts standout results on ARC-AGI-3 and agentic benchmarks. Traders assign the largest share to "Other" because the rapid succession of frontier updates from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google creates uncertainty over which large language model will lead independent leaderboards or arena evaluations by September 14. Claude Opus 5 variants retain meaningful implied probability due to their strong verified coding and knowledge-work performance at lower cost, yet the market reflects caution that a fresh GPT-6 release or Gemini 3.8 variant could shift the ranking before resolution. Proximity to the snapshot date amplifies sensitivity to any new benchmark data or capability demonstrations.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$673結束日期
2026-09-14市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETRecent releases of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 and GPT-6 Astra on September 3 have intensified competition for the top spot heading into mid-month, with Fable 5.1 claiming the highest Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score at 66 while the new OpenAI model posts standout results on ARC-AGI-3 and agentic benchmarks. Traders assign the largest share to "Other" because the rapid succession of frontier updates from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google creates uncertainty over which large language model will lead independent leaderboards or arena evaluations by September 14. Claude Opus 5 variants retain meaningful implied probability due to their strong verified coding and knowledge-work performance at lower cost, yet the market reflects caution that a fresh GPT-6 release or Gemini 3.8 variant could shift the ranking before resolution. Proximity to the snapshot date amplifies sensitivity to any new benchmark data or capability demonstrations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions