Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would launch in roughly ten days has tightened trader focus on mid-September dates, with market-implied odds clustering tightly around September 15–18. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model follows Grok 4.6’s August 12 release and incorporates supplemental SpaceX training data, positioning it for stronger real-world engineering performance than rivals. Past xAI timelines have slipped, however, leaving room for last-minute testing or infrastructure delays that could push the date later within the month. Competitive pressure from upcoming OpenAI and Anthropic releases adds further uncertainty, keeping probabilities for an on-or-before-September-9 outcome or a post-September-30 delay nearly as high as the leading mid-month windows.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9 月 18 日 44%
9 月 16 日 43%
9月10日 42%
9 月 20 日 42%
最新
最新
2026-09-09
在 9 月 9 日或之前
42%
9月10日
42%
9月11日
40%
9 月 12 日
23%
9 月 13 日
39%
9 月 14 日
39%
9 月 15 日
42%
9 月 16 日
43%
9 月 17 日
41%
9 月 18 日
44%
9 月 19 日
39%
9 月 20 日
42%
9 月 21 日
41%
9 月 22 日
39%
9 月 23 日
42%
9 月 24 日
39%
9 月 25 日
42%
9 月 26 日
38%
9 月 27 日
39%
9 月 28 日
39%
9 月 29 日
39%
9 月 30 日
39%
截至9月30日無發佈
38%
9 月 18 日 44%
9 月 16 日 43%
9月10日 42%
9 月 20 日 42%
最新
最新
2026-09-09
在 9 月 9 日或之前
$0 交易量
42%
9月10日
$0 交易量
42%
9月11日
$0 交易量
40%
9 月 12 日
$317 交易量
23%
9 月 13 日
$55 交易量
39%
9 月 14 日
$0 交易量
39%
9 月 15 日
$0 交易量
42%
9 月 16 日
$0 交易量
43%
9 月 17 日
$0 交易量
41%
9 月 18 日
$0 交易量
44%
9 月 19 日
$0 交易量
39%
9 月 20 日
$0 交易量
42%
9 月 21 日
$0 交易量
41%
9 月 22 日
$0 交易量
39%
9 月 23 日
$0 交易量
42%
9 月 24 日
$0 交易量
39%
9 月 25 日
$0 交易量
42%
9 月 26 日
$0 交易量
38%
9 月 27 日
$0 交易量
39%
9 月 28 日
$0 交易量
39%
9 月 29 日
$0 交易量
39%
9 月 30 日
$0 交易量
39%
截至9月30日無發佈
$0 交易量
38%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would launch in roughly ten days has tightened trader focus on mid-September dates, with market-implied odds clustering tightly around September 15–18. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model follows Grok 4.6’s August 12 release and incorporates supplemental SpaceX training data, positioning it for stronger real-world engineering performance than rivals. Past xAI timelines have slipped, however, leaving room for last-minute testing or infrastructure delays that could push the date later within the month. Competitive pressure from upcoming OpenAI and Anthropic releases adds further uncertainty, keeping probabilities for an on-or-before-September-9 outcome or a post-September-30 delay nearly as high as the leading mid-month windows.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET
交易量
$372結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would launch in roughly ten days has tightened trader focus on mid-September dates, with market-implied odds clustering tightly around September 15–18. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model follows Grok 4.6’s August 12 release and incorporates supplemental SpaceX training data, positioning it for stronger real-world engineering performance than rivals. Past xAI timelines have slipped, however, leaving room for last-minute testing or infrastructure delays that could push the date later within the month. Competitive pressure from upcoming OpenAI and Anthropic releases adds further uncertainty, keeping probabilities for an on-or-before-September-9 outcome or a post-September-30 delay nearly as high as the leading mid-month windows.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$372結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETElon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would launch in roughly ten days has tightened trader focus on mid-September dates, with market-implied odds clustering tightly around September 15–18. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model follows Grok 4.6’s August 12 release and incorporates supplemental SpaceX training data, positioning it for stronger real-world engineering performance than rivals. Past xAI timelines have slipped, however, leaving room for last-minute testing or infrastructure delays that could push the date later within the month. Competitive pressure from upcoming OpenAI and Anthropic releases adds further uncertainty, keeping probabilities for an on-or-before-September-9 outcome or a post-September-30 delay nearly as high as the leading mid-month windows.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions