Recent releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 on September 1 have positioned Anthropic’s latest frontier models at the top of multiple September 2026 leaderboards, including BenchLM and HLE, where Fable 5.1 leads with strong scores in coding, agentic workflows, and knowledge work. This underpins the near-even split between claude-fable-5.1-max and “Other” in trader consensus, as OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants and Google’s Gemini 3.8 series remain close on composite benchmarks while offering different pricing and context strengths. Claude Opus 5 continues to trade at lower implied odds due to its efficiency edge at roughly half Fable’s cost, though rapid iteration across labs creates ongoing uncertainty ahead of the September 21 resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於其他 46%
claude-opus-5-high 26%
claude-opus-5-max 13%
claude-opus-4-6-high 6%
最新
最新
2026-09-21
其他
32%
claude-opus-5-high
26%
claude-opus-5-max
13%
claude-opus-4-6-high
6%
claude-fable-5.1-max
49%
其他 46%
claude-opus-5-high 26%
claude-opus-5-max 13%
claude-opus-4-6-high 6%
最新
最新
2026-09-21
其他
$139 交易量
32%
claude-opus-5-high
$41 交易量
26%
claude-opus-5-max
$61 交易量
13%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$156 交易量
6%
claude-fable-5.1-max
$176 交易量
49%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 on September 1 have positioned Anthropic’s latest frontier models at the top of multiple September 2026 leaderboards, including BenchLM and HLE, where Fable 5.1 leads with strong scores in coding, agentic workflows, and knowledge work. This underpins the near-even split between claude-fable-5.1-max and “Other” in trader consensus, as OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants and Google’s Gemini 3.8 series remain close on composite benchmarks while offering different pricing and context strengths. Claude Opus 5 continues to trade at lower implied odds due to its efficiency edge at roughly half Fable’s cost, though rapid iteration across labs creates ongoing uncertainty ahead of the September 21 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ET
交易量
$573結束日期
2026-09-21市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 on September 1 have positioned Anthropic’s latest frontier models at the top of multiple September 2026 leaderboards, including BenchLM and HLE, where Fable 5.1 leads with strong scores in coding, agentic workflows, and knowledge work. This underpins the near-even split between claude-fable-5.1-max and “Other” in trader consensus, as OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants and Google’s Gemini 3.8 series remain close on composite benchmarks while offering different pricing and context strengths. Claude Opus 5 continues to trade at lower implied odds due to its efficiency edge at roughly half Fable’s cost, though rapid iteration across labs creates ongoing uncertainty ahead of the September 21 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$573結束日期
2026-09-21市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETRecent releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 on September 1 have positioned Anthropic’s latest frontier models at the top of multiple September 2026 leaderboards, including BenchLM and HLE, where Fable 5.1 leads with strong scores in coding, agentic workflows, and knowledge work. This underpins the near-even split between claude-fable-5.1-max and “Other” in trader consensus, as OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants and Google’s Gemini 3.8 series remain close on composite benchmarks while offering different pricing and context strengths. Claude Opus 5 continues to trade at lower implied odds due to its efficiency edge at roughly half Fable’s cost, though rapid iteration across labs creates ongoing uncertainty ahead of the September 21 resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions