OpenAI’s decision to rule out a 2026 IPO, with CEO Sam Altman citing AI safety and alignment priorities as making a public listing “ill-advised,” has reinforced trader expectations for a 2027 debut at an elevated valuation. The company’s March 2026 private round closed at an $852 billion post-money valuation following a $122 billion raise, yet Altman has treated anything below $1 trillion as a nonstarter amid continued revenue expansion from ChatGPT subscriptions and enterprise contracts. This stance, combined with the absence of pre-IPO investor meetings and lessons from SpaceX’s post-listing volatility, supports the 74% implied probability on a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion by embedding assumptions of further growth in ARR and sustained AI-sector multiples before the first trading day. Upcoming catalysts include any public S-1 release or updates on compute commitments that could refine these market-implied odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於1.5兆以上 74.0%
1.25兆–1.5兆 13%
2027年12月31日前不進行首次公開募股 5.5%
1 兆–1.25 兆 5.0%
$279,172 交易量
$279,172 交易量
2027-12-31
低於5000億
<1%
5,000–7,500 億
1%
7,500億–1兆
3%
1 兆–1.25 兆
5%
1.25兆–1.5兆
13%
1.5兆以上
74%
2027年12月31日前不進行首次公開募股
6%
1.5兆以上 74.0%
1.25兆–1.5兆 13%
2027年12月31日前不進行首次公開募股 5.5%
1 兆–1.25 兆 5.0%
$279,172 交易量
$279,172 交易量
2027-12-31
低於5000億
$23,451 交易量
<1%
5,000–7,500 億
$22,646 交易量
1%
7,500億–1兆
$59,010 交易量
3%
1 兆–1.25 兆
$35,307 交易量
5%
1.25兆–1.5兆
$25,336 交易量
13%
1.5兆以上
$60,057 交易量
74%
2027年12月31日前不進行首次公開募股
$53,365 交易量
6%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s decision to rule out a 2026 IPO, with CEO Sam Altman citing AI safety and alignment priorities as making a public listing “ill-advised,” has reinforced trader expectations for a 2027 debut at an elevated valuation. The company’s March 2026 private round closed at an $852 billion post-money valuation following a $122 billion raise, yet Altman has treated anything below $1 trillion as a nonstarter amid continued revenue expansion from ChatGPT subscriptions and enterprise contracts. This stance, combined with the absence of pre-IPO investor meetings and lessons from SpaceX’s post-listing volatility, supports the 74% implied probability on a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion by embedding assumptions of further growth in ARR and sustained AI-sector multiples before the first trading day. Upcoming catalysts include any public S-1 release or updates on compute commitments that could refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市場開放時間： Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
交易量
$279,172結束日期
2028-01-01市場開放時間
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETThis market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s decision to rule out a 2026 IPO, with CEO Sam Altman citing AI safety and alignment priorities as making a public listing “ill-advised,” has reinforced trader expectations for a 2027 debut at an elevated valuation. The company’s March 2026 private round closed at an $852 billion post-money valuation following a $122 billion raise, yet Altman has treated anything below $1 trillion as a nonstarter amid continued revenue expansion from ChatGPT subscriptions and enterprise contracts. This stance, combined with the absence of pre-IPO investor meetings and lessons from SpaceX’s post-listing volatility, supports the 74% implied probability on a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion by embedding assumptions of further growth in ARR and sustained AI-sector multiples before the first trading day. Upcoming catalysts include any public S-1 release or updates on compute commitments that could refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
交易量
$279,172結束日期
2028-01-01市場開放時間
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETOpenAI’s decision to rule out a 2026 IPO, with CEO Sam Altman citing AI safety and alignment priorities as making a public listing “ill-advised,” has reinforced trader expectations for a 2027 debut at an elevated valuation. The company’s March 2026 private round closed at an $852 billion post-money valuation following a $122 billion raise, yet Altman has treated anything below $1 trillion as a nonstarter amid continued revenue expansion from ChatGPT subscriptions and enterprise contracts. This stance, combined with the absence of pre-IPO investor meetings and lessons from SpaceX’s post-listing volatility, supports the 74% implied probability on a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion by embedding assumptions of further growth in ARR and sustained AI-sector multiples before the first trading day. Upcoming catalysts include any public S-1 release or updates on compute commitments that could refine these market-implied odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions