Microsoft’s June 2026 Build announcement of MAI-Thinking-1 established the company’s first in-house reasoning model, a 35B-active-parameter MoE trained from scratch on clean enterprise data without distillation from third-party labs. The model quickly showed competitive results on AIME 2025/2026 math benchmarks and SWE-Bench Pro coding tasks, with human raters preferring it over Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind evaluations while emphasizing lower inference costs and enterprise controls via Microsoft Foundry. Public preview launched August 12, 2026, positioning it against frontier reasoning systems from Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI amid Microsoft’s broader push for AI independence. Trader focus now centers on integration timelines into Copilot and Azure, potential benchmark updates, and any credible signals of a designated successor before year-end deadlines.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
2026-09-30
September 30
27%
December 31
55%
$489 交易量
September 30
$188 交易量
27%
December 31
$301 交易量
55%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft’s June 2026 Build announcement of MAI-Thinking-1 established the company’s first in-house reasoning model, a 35B-active-parameter MoE trained from scratch on clean enterprise data without distillation from third-party labs. The model quickly showed competitive results on AIME 2025/2026 math benchmarks and SWE-Bench Pro coding tasks, with human raters preferring it over Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind evaluations while emphasizing lower inference costs and enterprise controls via Microsoft Foundry. Public preview launched August 12, 2026, positioning it against frontier reasoning systems from Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI amid Microsoft’s broader push for AI independence. Trader focus now centers on integration timelines into Copilot and Azure, potential benchmark updates, and any credible signals of a designated successor before year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
交易量
$489結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft’s June 2026 Build announcement of MAI-Thinking-1 established the company’s first in-house reasoning model, a 35B-active-parameter MoE trained from scratch on clean enterprise data without distillation from third-party labs. The model quickly showed competitive results on AIME 2025/2026 math benchmarks and SWE-Bench Pro coding tasks, with human raters preferring it over Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind evaluations while emphasizing lower inference costs and enterprise controls via Microsoft Foundry. Public preview launched August 12, 2026, positioning it against frontier reasoning systems from Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI amid Microsoft’s broader push for AI independence. Trader focus now centers on integration timelines into Copilot and Azure, potential benchmark updates, and any credible signals of a designated successor before year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$489結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETMicrosoft’s June 2026 Build announcement of MAI-Thinking-1 established the company’s first in-house reasoning model, a 35B-active-parameter MoE trained from scratch on clean enterprise data without distillation from third-party labs. The model quickly showed competitive results on AIME 2025/2026 math benchmarks and SWE-Bench Pro coding tasks, with human raters preferring it over Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind evaluations while emphasizing lower inference costs and enterprise controls via Microsoft Foundry. Public preview launched August 12, 2026, positioning it against frontier reasoning systems from Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI amid Microsoft’s broader push for AI independence. Trader focus now centers on integration timelines into Copilot and Azure, potential benchmark updates, and any credible signals of a designated successor before year-end deadlines.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions