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科技·AI

下一個神話級模型發布於… ？

icon for 下一個神話級模型發布於… ？
科技·AI

下一個神話級模型發布於… ？

9月4日 56%

9月22日 55%

9月10日 53%

9月8日 51%

Polymarket
最新

9月4日 56%

9月22日 55%

9月10日 53%

9月8日 51%

Polymarket
最新

8月26日

$46 交易量

21%

8月27日

$46 交易量

21%

8月28日

$46 交易量

23%

8月29日

$496 交易量

1%

8月30日

$496 交易量

1%

8月31日

$31 交易量

24%

9月1日

$46 交易量

22%

9月2日

$136 交易量

19%

9月3日

$136 交易量

6%

9月4日

$136 交易量

56%

9月5日

$236 交易量

1%

9月6日

$236 交易量

-

9月7日

$136 交易量

47%

9月8日

$136 交易量

51%

9月9日

$136 交易量

45%

9月10日

$136 交易量

53%

9月11日

$46 交易量

16%

9月12日

$136 交易量

1%

9月13日

$136 交易量

33%

9月14日

$136 交易量

19%

9月15日

$136 交易量

51%

9月16日

$136 交易量

30%

9月17日

$136 交易量

4%

9月18日

$156 交易量

13%

9月19日

$417 交易量

34%

9月20日

$457 交易量

3%

9月21日

$136 交易量

6%

9月22日

$136 交易量

55%

9月23日

$136 交易量

34%

9月24日

$136 交易量

25%

9月25日

$136 交易量

27%

9月26日

$136 交易量

14%

9月27日

$462 交易量

5%

9月28日

$136 交易量

5%

9月29日

$136 交易量

21%

9月30日

$136 交易量

4%

於9月30日之前無發佈

$444 交易量

27%

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Mythos-class model is made available to the general public. Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s June 9 release of the safeguarded Fable 5 and restricted Mythos 5 reset the cycle for the next Mythos-class model, with traders clustering probabilities around early-to-mid September 2026 on the expectation of a typical 3–5 month frontier cadence. Recent leaks pointing to an internal “Model 2” successor with notable benchmark gains have reinforced near-term expectations, yet no official announcements, developer conferences, or confirmed compute allocations have emerged to narrow the window. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s phased GPT-5.6 rollout, ongoing U.S. regulatory scrutiny of advanced cybersecurity capabilities, and typical safety-evaluation timelines keep the market tightly bunched rather than favoring any single date. The 25% odds on no release by September 30 reflect residual uncertainty around potential delays from infrastructure constraints or extended red-teaming.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Mythos-class model is made available to the general public.

Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$6,659
結束日期
2026-09-30
市場開放時間
Aug 24, 2026, 7:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Mythos-class model is made available to the general public. Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Mythos-class model is made available to the general public. Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s June 9 release of the safeguarded Fable 5 and restricted Mythos 5 reset the cycle for the next Mythos-class model, with traders clustering probabilities around early-to-mid September 2026 on the expectation of a typical 3–5 month frontier cadence. Recent leaks pointing to an internal “Model 2” successor with notable benchmark gains have reinforced near-term expectations, yet no official announcements, developer conferences, or confirmed compute allocations have emerged to narrow the window. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s phased GPT-5.6 rollout, ongoing U.S. regulatory scrutiny of advanced cybersecurity capabilities, and typical safety-evaluation timelines keep the market tightly bunched rather than favoring any single date. The 25% odds on no release by September 30 reflect residual uncertainty around potential delays from infrastructure constraints or extended red-teaming.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Mythos-class model is made available to the general public.

Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$6,659
結束日期
2026-09-30
市場開放時間
Aug 24, 2026, 7:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Mythos-class model is made available to the general public. Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"下一個神話級模型發布於… ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 38 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "9月19日" at 34%, followed by "9月23日" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 34¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"下一個神話級模型發布於… ？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 24, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "下一個神話級模型發布於… ？," browse the 38 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "下一個神話級模型發布於… ？" is "9月19日" at 34%, meaning the market assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "9月23日" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "下一個神話級模型發布於… ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.