Sustained Falcon 9 reusability and dedicated Starlink missions continue to anchor trader consensus around 140-159 total SpaceX launches for 2026. With over 100 Falcon flights already completed by early September and a cadence exceeding one per week, the vehicle’s rapid turnaround, multiple pads at Vandenberg and Cape Canaveral, and standardized payload interfaces support this range. Starship’s shift toward orbital attempts, including Flight 14 targeting late September with V3 satellites, introduces upside potential if regulatory and technical milestones align, though production scaling remains a key variable. Historical Falcon reliability above 95% and Starlink’s weekly deployment needs reinforce the market-implied probabilities.