Extensive NASA CNEOS monitoring through optical surveys, radar, and the Sentry impact-monitoring system has identified no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of producing a 100-kiloton or greater airburst in 2026. Historical bolide data from the JPL Fireball repository show only two such events since comprehensive global coverage began in 1988, establishing a low base rate of roughly one every 15–20 years. Objects energetic enough to reach this threshold are typically tens of meters across and would be detected months ahead, supporting the market’s 96.4% implied probability for “No.” Residual uncertainty stems from the small possibility of an undetected long-period comet fragment or rapid fragmentation of a smaller body, though these remain statistically remote given current survey completeness.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
4% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
4% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive NASA CNEOS monitoring through optical surveys, radar, and the Sentry impact-monitoring system has identified no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of producing a 100-kiloton or greater airburst in 2026. Historical bolide data from the JPL Fireball repository show only two such events since comprehensive global coverage began in 1988, establishing a low base rate of roughly one every 15–20 years. Objects energetic enough to reach this threshold are typically tens of meters across and would be detected months ahead, supporting the market’s 96.4% implied probability for “No.” Residual uncertainty stems from the small possibility of an undetected long-period comet fragment or rapid fragmentation of a smaller body, though these remain statistically remote given current survey completeness.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市場開放時間： Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
交易量
$8,955結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive NASA CNEOS monitoring through optical surveys, radar, and the Sentry impact-monitoring system has identified no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of producing a 100-kiloton or greater airburst in 2026. Historical bolide data from the JPL Fireball repository show only two such events since comprehensive global coverage began in 1988, establishing a low base rate of roughly one every 15–20 years. Objects energetic enough to reach this threshold are typically tens of meters across and would be detected months ahead, supporting the market’s 96.4% implied probability for “No.” Residual uncertainty stems from the small possibility of an undetected long-period comet fragment or rapid fragmentation of a smaller body, though these remain statistically remote given current survey completeness.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$8,955結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETExtensive NASA CNEOS monitoring through optical surveys, radar, and the Sentry impact-monitoring system has identified no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of producing a 100-kiloton or greater airburst in 2026. Historical bolide data from the JPL Fireball repository show only two such events since comprehensive global coverage began in 1988, establishing a low base rate of roughly one every 15–20 years. Objects energetic enough to reach this threshold are typically tens of meters across and would be detected months ahead, supporting the market’s 96.4% implied probability for “No.” Residual uncertainty stems from the small possibility of an undetected long-period comet fragment or rapid fragmentation of a smaller body, though these remain statistically remote given current survey completeness.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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