No cataloged near-Earth objects currently pose a 5 kt or greater impact risk for the remainder of 2026, according to NASA and ESA monitoring systems, which underpins the market-implied 74.5% probability of “No.” Estimates of annual frequency for airbursts at this energy threshold range from roughly one per year in older models to one every few decades in more recent analyses of CNEOS fireball data, reflecting the steep size-frequency distribution of small meteoroids. Multiple 2026 events detected by ground sensors and GOES satellites have released only hundreds of tons TNT equivalent, consistent with objects under 2 meters in diameter. Continued Sentry and Scout tracking, plus any new detections before year-end, represent the key variables that could shift consensus if an unexpected large body appears on a collision trajectory.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
26% 機率
$313,726 交易量
$313,726 交易量
2026-12-31
是
26% 機率
$313,726 交易量
$313,726 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No cataloged near-Earth objects currently pose a 5 kt or greater impact risk for the remainder of 2026, according to NASA and ESA monitoring systems, which underpins the market-implied 74.5% probability of “No.” Estimates of annual frequency for airbursts at this energy threshold range from roughly one per year in older models to one every few decades in more recent analyses of CNEOS fireball data, reflecting the steep size-frequency distribution of small meteoroids. Multiple 2026 events detected by ground sensors and GOES satellites have released only hundreds of tons TNT equivalent, consistent with objects under 2 meters in diameter. Continued Sentry and Scout tracking, plus any new detections before year-end, represent the key variables that could shift consensus if an unexpected large body appears on a collision trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市場開放時間： Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
交易量
$313,726結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No cataloged near-Earth objects currently pose a 5 kt or greater impact risk for the remainder of 2026, according to NASA and ESA monitoring systems, which underpins the market-implied 74.5% probability of “No.” Estimates of annual frequency for airbursts at this energy threshold range from roughly one per year in older models to one every few decades in more recent analyses of CNEOS fireball data, reflecting the steep size-frequency distribution of small meteoroids. Multiple 2026 events detected by ground sensors and GOES satellites have released only hundreds of tons TNT equivalent, consistent with objects under 2 meters in diameter. Continued Sentry and Scout tracking, plus any new detections before year-end, represent the key variables that could shift consensus if an unexpected large body appears on a collision trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$313,726結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETNo cataloged near-Earth objects currently pose a 5 kt or greater impact risk for the remainder of 2026, according to NASA and ESA monitoring systems, which underpins the market-implied 74.5% probability of “No.” Estimates of annual frequency for airbursts at this energy threshold range from roughly one per year in older models to one every few decades in more recent analyses of CNEOS fireball data, reflecting the steep size-frequency distribution of small meteoroids. Multiple 2026 events detected by ground sensors and GOES satellites have released only hundreds of tons TNT equivalent, consistent with objects under 2 meters in diameter. Continued Sentry and Scout tracking, plus any new detections before year-end, represent the key variables that could shift consensus if an unexpected large body appears on a collision trajectory.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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