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icon for 2026年人類登月？
科技·文化

2026年人類登月？

icon for 2026年人類登月？
科技·文化

2026年人類登月？

是

2% 機率
Polymarket

$1,968,925 交易量

是

2% 機率
Polymarket

$1,968,925 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.NASA's Artemis program has shifted its first crewed lunar landing from earlier targets to Artemis IV in 2028, following Artemis III's redesign as a 2027 low-Earth orbit test of docking procedures with commercial landers. Key drivers include persistent delays in SpaceX Starship Human Landing System development—such as unproven orbital refueling and uncrewed lunar demonstrations—and a May 2026 explosion that damaged Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket and launchpad. With Artemis II completing only a crewed flyby in April 2026 and no other nations or companies scheduling crewed missions before year-end, the 98% market-implied probability on "No" reflects strong trader consensus on these verified technical and schedule barriers. While last-minute breakthroughs remain theoretically possible, they appear highly improbable given current hardware readiness.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,968,925
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.NASA's Artemis program has shifted its first crewed lunar landing from earlier targets to Artemis IV in 2028, following Artemis III's redesign as a 2027 low-Earth orbit test of docking procedures with commercial landers. Key drivers include persistent delays in SpaceX Starship Human Landing System development—such as unproven orbital refueling and uncrewed lunar demonstrations—and a May 2026 explosion that damaged Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket and launchpad. With Artemis II completing only a crewed flyby in April 2026 and no other nations or companies scheduling crewed missions before year-end, the 98% market-implied probability on "No" reflects strong trader consensus on these verified technical and schedule barriers. While last-minute breakthroughs remain theoretically possible, they appear highly improbable given current hardware readiness.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,968,925
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年人類登月？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "人類將於2026年登陸月球？" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 2¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 2% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年人類登月？" has generated $2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年人類登月？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "2026年人類登月？" is "人類將於2026年登陸月球？" at just 2%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "2026年人類登月？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.