**A rapidly intensifying El Niño, already producing Niño 3.4 anomalies above +2°C and forecast to reach very strong or super El Niño levels by late 2026, is the dominant near-term driver pushing September 2026 global temperatures toward the top ranks.** Record extra-polar sea-surface temperatures (21.1°C on 22 August) reflect the combined effects of long-term anthropogenic warming and this event, with July 2026 tying or approaching the hottest July on record across major datasets. El Niño’s global-mean temperature impact typically lags Pacific peaks by several months, so September will capture early reinforcement of the background trend but not the full seasonal maximum expected later in fall or winter. Recent model runs place 2026 on track for second-warmest annual ranking behind 2024, with rising odds of a new record depending on dataset and exact El Niño evolution; September’s precise placement among the top three therefore hinges on how quickly the current ocean heat anomaly translates into monthly surface temperatures versus any short-term atmospheric variability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2026年9月第1、第2或第3熱門？
2026年9月第1、第2或第3熱門？
第4或更低 49%
第二熱 47%
第三熱 47%
最熱的第 1 名 46%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
最熱的第 1 名
46%
第二熱
47%
第三熱
47%
第4或更低
49%
第4或更低 49%
第二熱 47%
第三熱 47%
最熱的第 1 名 46%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
最熱的第 1 名
$0 交易量
46%
第二熱
$0 交易量
47%
第三熱
$0 交易量
47%
第4或更低
$0 交易量
49%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.**A rapidly intensifying El Niño, already producing Niño 3.4 anomalies above +2°C and forecast to reach very strong or super El Niño levels by late 2026, is the dominant near-term driver pushing September 2026 global temperatures toward the top ranks.** Record extra-polar sea-surface temperatures (21.1°C on 22 August) reflect the combined effects of long-term anthropogenic warming and this event, with July 2026 tying or approaching the hottest July on record across major datasets. El Niño’s global-mean temperature impact typically lags Pacific peaks by several months, so September will capture early reinforcement of the background trend but not the full seasonal maximum expected later in fall or winter. Recent model runs place 2026 on track for second-warmest annual ranking behind 2024, with rising odds of a new record depending on dataset and exact El Niño evolution; September’s precise placement among the top three therefore hinges on how quickly the current ocean heat anomaly translates into monthly surface temperatures versus any short-term atmospheric variability.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
市場開放時間： Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.**A rapidly intensifying El Niño, already producing Niño 3.4 anomalies above +2°C and forecast to reach very strong or super El Niño levels by late 2026, is the dominant near-term driver pushing September 2026 global temperatures toward the top ranks.** Record extra-polar sea-surface temperatures (21.1°C on 22 August) reflect the combined effects of long-term anthropogenic warming and this event, with July 2026 tying or approaching the hottest July on record across major datasets. El Niño’s global-mean temperature impact typically lags Pacific peaks by several months, so September will capture early reinforcement of the background trend but not the full seasonal maximum expected later in fall or winter. Recent model runs place 2026 on track for second-warmest annual ranking behind 2024, with rising odds of a new record depending on dataset and exact El Niño evolution; September’s precise placement among the top three therefore hinges on how quickly the current ocean heat anomaly translates into monthly surface temperatures versus any short-term atmospheric variability.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET**A rapidly intensifying El Niño, already producing Niño 3.4 anomalies above +2°C and forecast to reach very strong or super El Niño levels by late 2026, is the dominant near-term driver pushing September 2026 global temperatures toward the top ranks.** Record extra-polar sea-surface temperatures (21.1°C on 22 August) reflect the combined effects of long-term anthropogenic warming and this event, with July 2026 tying or approaching the hottest July on record across major datasets. El Niño’s global-mean temperature impact typically lags Pacific peaks by several months, so September will capture early reinforcement of the background trend but not the full seasonal maximum expected later in fall or winter. Recent model runs place 2026 on track for second-warmest annual ranking behind 2024, with rising odds of a new record depending on dataset and exact El Niño evolution; September’s precise placement among the top three therefore hinges on how quickly the current ocean heat anomaly translates into monthly surface temperatures versus any short-term atmospheric variability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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