**With the strongest earthquake of 2026 so far registering Mw 7.8 offshore Mindanao in early June, traders heavily favor a year-end maximum of 7.9 or below (69.5% implied probability).** Global catalogs show M7.0+ events occur roughly 15–20 times annually, yet great earthquakes (Mw 8.0+) average only about one per year, and Mw 9.0+ events are far rarer—roughly one every decade or longer on average. The current distribution of activity along subduction zones in the Ring of Fire has produced several M7.4–7.7 quakes in 2026 (including a recent M7.7 near Indonesia and an M7.4 in Colombia), but none have approached the upper end of the magnitude scale. With roughly four and a half months remaining, the market reflects the limited remaining window for a rare, high-magnitude rupture on a major fault segment large enough to generate Mw 8.5+, while acknowledging that seismic catalogs and USGS monitoring indicate such events remain possible but statistically uncommon in any given short period. Upcoming global seismic reports and any new M8+ detections will be the primary near-term drivers of shifts in these probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2026年最大地震強度？
2026年最大地震強度？
7.9 或以下 70%
8.4 – 8.5 11%
8.0–8.1 11%
8.2 – 8.3 8%
最新
最新
2027-01-03
7.9 或以下
70%
8.0–8.1
11%
8.2 – 8.3
8%
8.4 – 8.5
11%
8.6–8.7
7%
8.8–8.9
6%
9.0或以上
6%
7.9 或以下 70%
8.4 – 8.5 11%
8.0–8.1 11%
8.2 – 8.3 8%
最新
最新
2027-01-03
7.9 或以下
$50 交易量
70%
8.0–8.1
$0 交易量
11%
8.2 – 8.3
$0 交易量
8%
8.4 – 8.5
$0 交易量
11%
8.6–8.7
$20 交易量
7%
8.8–8.9
$0 交易量
6%
9.0或以上
$0 交易量
6%
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.**With the strongest earthquake of 2026 so far registering Mw 7.8 offshore Mindanao in early June, traders heavily favor a year-end maximum of 7.9 or below (69.5% implied probability).** Global catalogs show M7.0+ events occur roughly 15–20 times annually, yet great earthquakes (Mw 8.0+) average only about one per year, and Mw 9.0+ events are far rarer—roughly one every decade or longer on average. The current distribution of activity along subduction zones in the Ring of Fire has produced several M7.4–7.7 quakes in 2026 (including a recent M7.7 near Indonesia and an M7.4 in Colombia), but none have approached the upper end of the magnitude scale.
With roughly four and a half months remaining, the market reflects the limited remaining window for a rare, high-magnitude rupture on a major fault segment large enough to generate Mw 8.5+, while acknowledging that seismic catalogs and USGS monitoring indicate such events remain possible but statistically uncommon in any given short period. Upcoming global seismic reports and any new M8+ detections will be the primary near-term drivers of shifts in these probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
市場開放時間： Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ET
交易量
$70結束日期
2027-01-04市場開放時間
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.**With the strongest earthquake of 2026 so far registering Mw 7.8 offshore Mindanao in early June, traders heavily favor a year-end maximum of 7.9 or below (69.5% implied probability).** Global catalogs show M7.0+ events occur roughly 15–20 times annually, yet great earthquakes (Mw 8.0+) average only about one per year, and Mw 9.0+ events are far rarer—roughly one every decade or longer on average. The current distribution of activity along subduction zones in the Ring of Fire has produced several M7.4–7.7 quakes in 2026 (including a recent M7.7 near Indonesia and an M7.4 in Colombia), but none have approached the upper end of the magnitude scale.
With roughly four and a half months remaining, the market reflects the limited remaining window for a rare, high-magnitude rupture on a major fault segment large enough to generate Mw 8.5+, while acknowledging that seismic catalogs and USGS monitoring indicate such events remain possible but statistically uncommon in any given short period. Upcoming global seismic reports and any new M8+ detections will be the primary near-term drivers of shifts in these probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
交易量
$70結束日期
2027-01-04市場開放時間
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ET**With the strongest earthquake of 2026 so far registering Mw 7.8 offshore Mindanao in early June, traders heavily favor a year-end maximum of 7.9 or below (69.5% implied probability).** Global catalogs show M7.0+ events occur roughly 15–20 times annually, yet great earthquakes (Mw 8.0+) average only about one per year, and Mw 9.0+ events are far rarer—roughly one every decade or longer on average. The current distribution of activity along subduction zones in the Ring of Fire has produced several M7.4–7.7 quakes in 2026 (including a recent M7.7 near Indonesia and an M7.4 in Colombia), but none have approached the upper end of the magnitude scale. With roughly four and a half months remaining, the market reflects the limited remaining window for a rare, high-magnitude rupture on a major fault segment large enough to generate Mw 8.5+, while acknowledging that seismic catalogs and USGS monitoring indicate such events remain possible but statistically uncommon in any given short period. Upcoming global seismic reports and any new M8+ detections will be the primary near-term drivers of shifts in these probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions