USGS data confirm that no fault system on Earth is long enough to produce a magnitude 10.0 earthquake, establishing a physical upper limit near 9.5–9.6 on the longest subduction-zone segments such as Chile’s. The 1960 Valdivia event remains the historical maximum, and 2026 seismic activity has stayed well below M9 levels, consistent with decades of monitoring that show no multi-segment ruptures approaching that threshold. With only months remaining until 2027, the narrow time window reinforces trader consensus at 99.1 percent “No.” An unforeseen revision in global fault-length estimates or an unprecedented, low-probability rupture cascade could theoretically shift the outcome, though such scenarios lack supporting geophysical evidence.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$788,753 交易量
$788,753 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$788,753 交易量
$788,753 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS data confirm that no fault system on Earth is long enough to produce a magnitude 10.0 earthquake, establishing a physical upper limit near 9.5–9.6 on the longest subduction-zone segments such as Chile’s. The 1960 Valdivia event remains the historical maximum, and 2026 seismic activity has stayed well below M9 levels, consistent with decades of monitoring that show no multi-segment ruptures approaching that threshold. With only months remaining until 2027, the narrow time window reinforces trader consensus at 99.1 percent “No.” An unforeseen revision in global fault-length estimates or an unprecedented, low-probability rupture cascade could theoretically shift the outcome, though such scenarios lack supporting geophysical evidence.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市場開放時間： Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
交易量
$788,753結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS data confirm that no fault system on Earth is long enough to produce a magnitude 10.0 earthquake, establishing a physical upper limit near 9.5–9.6 on the longest subduction-zone segments such as Chile’s. The 1960 Valdivia event remains the historical maximum, and 2026 seismic activity has stayed well below M9 levels, consistent with decades of monitoring that show no multi-segment ruptures approaching that threshold. With only months remaining until 2027, the narrow time window reinforces trader consensus at 99.1 percent “No.” An unforeseen revision in global fault-length estimates or an unprecedented, low-probability rupture cascade could theoretically shift the outcome, though such scenarios lack supporting geophysical evidence.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$788,753結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...USGS data confirm that no fault system on Earth is long enough to produce a magnitude 10.0 earthquake, establishing a physical upper limit near 9.5–9.6 on the longest subduction-zone segments such as Chile’s. The 1960 Valdivia event remains the historical maximum, and 2026 seismic activity has stayed well below M9 levels, consistent with decades of monitoring that show no multi-segment ruptures approaching that threshold. With only months remaining until 2027, the narrow time window reinforces trader consensus at 99.1 percent “No.” An unforeseen revision in global fault-length estimates or an unprecedented, low-probability rupture cascade could theoretically shift the outcome, though such scenarios lack supporting geophysical evidence.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions