USGS assessments establish that magnitude 10.0 earthquakes are physically impossible because no known fault system on Earth is long enough to generate the required rupture length and energy release. The magnitude scale ties directly to fault dimensions, and a 10.0 event would demand a rupture spanning most of the planet—far exceeding the roughly 1,000 km segment that produced the record 9.5 Valdivia quake in 1960. Global monitoring through September 2026 shows only baseline seismicity, with the strongest recent event an 8.8 in Kamchatka in 2025 and no precursors indicating anomalous strain accumulation. Trader consensus at 98.7% for “No” reflects this geophysical certainty, tempered by the slim possibility of unforeseen revisions in USGS magnitude calculations or entirely novel tectonic understanding before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
1% 機率
$817,362 交易量
$817,362 交易量
2027-01-31
是
1% 機率
$817,362 交易量
$817,362 交易量
2027-01-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS assessments establish that magnitude 10.0 earthquakes are physically impossible because no known fault system on Earth is long enough to generate the required rupture length and energy release. The magnitude scale ties directly to fault dimensions, and a 10.0 event would demand a rupture spanning most of the planet—far exceeding the roughly 1,000 km segment that produced the record 9.5 Valdivia quake in 1960. Global monitoring through September 2026 shows only baseline seismicity, with the strongest recent event an 8.8 in Kamchatka in 2025 and no precursors indicating anomalous strain accumulation. Trader consensus at 98.7% for “No” reflects this geophysical certainty, tempered by the slim possibility of unforeseen revisions in USGS magnitude calculations or entirely novel tectonic understanding before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市場開放時間： Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
交易量
$817,362結束日期
2027-02-01市場開放時間
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS assessments establish that magnitude 10.0 earthquakes are physically impossible because no known fault system on Earth is long enough to generate the required rupture length and energy release. The magnitude scale ties directly to fault dimensions, and a 10.0 event would demand a rupture spanning most of the planet—far exceeding the roughly 1,000 km segment that produced the record 9.5 Valdivia quake in 1960. Global monitoring through September 2026 shows only baseline seismicity, with the strongest recent event an 8.8 in Kamchatka in 2025 and no precursors indicating anomalous strain accumulation. Trader consensus at 98.7% for “No” reflects this geophysical certainty, tempered by the slim possibility of unforeseen revisions in USGS magnitude calculations or entirely novel tectonic understanding before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$817,362結束日期
2027-02-01市場開放時間
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETUSGS assessments establish that magnitude 10.0 earthquakes are physically impossible because no known fault system on Earth is long enough to generate the required rupture length and energy release. The magnitude scale ties directly to fault dimensions, and a 10.0 event would demand a rupture spanning most of the planet—far exceeding the roughly 1,000 km segment that produced the record 9.5 Valdivia quake in 1960. Global monitoring through September 2026 shows only baseline seismicity, with the strongest recent event an 8.8 in Kamchatka in 2025 and no precursors indicating anomalous strain accumulation. Trader consensus at 98.7% for “No” reflects this geophysical certainty, tempered by the slim possibility of unforeseen revisions in USGS magnitude calculations or entirely novel tectonic understanding before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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