**No outcome at 99.1% reflects the scientific consensus that magnitude 10+ earthquakes are physically impossible on Earth.** USGS data establish that quake magnitude scales with fault-rupture length; generating a 10.0 event would require a continuous fault spanning roughly 14,000 km—far exceeding any known subduction zone or plate boundary. The largest instrumentally recorded quake reached only 9.5 during Chile’s 1960 Valdivia event on a ~1,000-mile fault, and global catalogs show M9+ events occur roughly once or twice per century at most. No seismic activity in 2025–2026 has approached even 8.0 in the most active regions, and monitoring by USGS and similar agencies shows no precursors capable of altering this limit before 2027. Only an unforeseen revision in magnitude scaling or an entirely new tectonic mechanism could theoretically intervene, yet both remain outside current geophysical understanding.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$781,760 交易量
$781,760 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$781,760 交易量
$781,760 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**No outcome at 99.1% reflects the scientific consensus that magnitude 10+ earthquakes are physically impossible on Earth.** USGS data establish that quake magnitude scales with fault-rupture length; generating a 10.0 event would require a continuous fault spanning roughly 14,000 km—far exceeding any known subduction zone or plate boundary. The largest instrumentally recorded quake reached only 9.5 during Chile’s 1960 Valdivia event on a ~1,000-mile fault, and global catalogs show M9+ events occur roughly once or twice per century at most. No seismic activity in 2025–2026 has approached even 8.0 in the most active regions, and monitoring by USGS and similar agencies shows no precursors capable of altering this limit before 2027. Only an unforeseen revision in magnitude scaling or an entirely new tectonic mechanism could theoretically intervene, yet both remain outside current geophysical understanding.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市場開放時間： Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
交易量
$781,760結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**No outcome at 99.1% reflects the scientific consensus that magnitude 10+ earthquakes are physically impossible on Earth.** USGS data establish that quake magnitude scales with fault-rupture length; generating a 10.0 event would require a continuous fault spanning roughly 14,000 km—far exceeding any known subduction zone or plate boundary. The largest instrumentally recorded quake reached only 9.5 during Chile’s 1960 Valdivia event on a ~1,000-mile fault, and global catalogs show M9+ events occur roughly once or twice per century at most. No seismic activity in 2025–2026 has approached even 8.0 in the most active regions, and monitoring by USGS and similar agencies shows no precursors capable of altering this limit before 2027. Only an unforeseen revision in magnitude scaling or an entirely new tectonic mechanism could theoretically intervene, yet both remain outside current geophysical understanding.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$781,760結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No outcome at 99.1% reflects the scientific consensus that magnitude 10+ earthquakes are physically impossible on Earth.** USGS data establish that quake magnitude scales with fault-rupture length; generating a 10.0 event would require a continuous fault spanning roughly 14,000 km—far exceeding any known subduction zone or plate boundary. The largest instrumentally recorded quake reached only 9.5 during Chile’s 1960 Valdivia event on a ~1,000-mile fault, and global catalogs show M9+ events occur roughly once or twice per century at most. No seismic activity in 2025–2026 has approached even 8.0 in the most active regions, and monitoring by USGS and similar agencies shows no precursors capable of altering this limit before 2027. Only an unforeseen revision in magnitude scaling or an entirely new tectonic mechanism could theoretically intervene, yet both remain outside current geophysical understanding.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions