Traders assign near-certainty to no magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquake before 2027 because USGS data and fault mechanics establish that such events are physically impossible on Earth. Earthquake magnitude scales with rupture length along a fault; no known fault segment approaches the roughly 10,000 km needed for M10, with the record 9.5 event in Chile (1960) occurring on a roughly 1,000 km subduction zone. Current global seismic monitoring shows no activity approaching these thresholds, and the remaining five-month window before 2027 offers no realistic pathway for sudden fault growth or measurement revision. While catalog uncertainties or hypothetical extreme events exist in principle, they remain outside observed geological limits and would require unprecedented tectonic conditions not supported by plate-boundary data.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$781,760 交易量
$781,760 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$781,760 交易量
$781,760 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Traders assign near-certainty to no magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquake before 2027 because USGS data and fault mechanics establish that such events are physically impossible on Earth. Earthquake magnitude scales with rupture length along a fault; no known fault segment approaches the roughly 10,000 km needed for M10, with the record 9.5 event in Chile (1960) occurring on a roughly 1,000 km subduction zone. Current global seismic monitoring shows no activity approaching these thresholds, and the remaining five-month window before 2027 offers no realistic pathway for sudden fault growth or measurement revision. While catalog uncertainties or hypothetical extreme events exist in principle, they remain outside observed geological limits and would require unprecedented tectonic conditions not supported by plate-boundary data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市場開放時間： Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
交易量
$781,760結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Traders assign near-certainty to no magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquake before 2027 because USGS data and fault mechanics establish that such events are physically impossible on Earth. Earthquake magnitude scales with rupture length along a fault; no known fault segment approaches the roughly 10,000 km needed for M10, with the record 9.5 event in Chile (1960) occurring on a roughly 1,000 km subduction zone. Current global seismic monitoring shows no activity approaching these thresholds, and the remaining five-month window before 2027 offers no realistic pathway for sudden fault growth or measurement revision. While catalog uncertainties or hypothetical extreme events exist in principle, they remain outside observed geological limits and would require unprecedented tectonic conditions not supported by plate-boundary data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$781,760結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign near-certainty to no magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquake before 2027 because USGS data and fault mechanics establish that such events are physically impossible on Earth. Earthquake magnitude scales with rupture length along a fault; no known fault segment approaches the roughly 10,000 km needed for M10, with the record 9.5 event in Chile (1960) occurring on a roughly 1,000 km subduction zone. Current global seismic monitoring shows no activity approaching these thresholds, and the remaining five-month window before 2027 offers no realistic pathway for sudden fault growth or measurement revision. While catalog uncertainties or hypothetical extreme events exist in principle, they remain outside observed geological limits and would require unprecedented tectonic conditions not supported by plate-boundary data.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions