The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes underpins the market's strong "No" consensus at 94.7% implied probability. USGS records show only five confirmed events since 1952, averaging roughly one every 15–25 years globally, with recurrence intervals on individual subduction zones often spanning centuries. No magnitude 9.0+ quake has occurred since the 2011 Tohoku event, and recent activity peaked at 8.8 in Kamchatka during 2025, followed by lower-magnitude events in 2026. With only months remaining until resolution, the short window further reduces odds absent unusual clustering. A realistic challenge could arise from rapid model revisions or an unexpected multi-segment rupture in a high-strain subduction zone, though current seismic monitoring shows no such precursors.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
5% 機率
$315,257 交易量
$315,257 交易量
2026-12-31
是
5% 機率
$315,257 交易量
$315,257 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes underpins the market's strong "No" consensus at 94.7% implied probability. USGS records show only five confirmed events since 1952, averaging roughly one every 15–25 years globally, with recurrence intervals on individual subduction zones often spanning centuries. No magnitude 9.0+ quake has occurred since the 2011 Tohoku event, and recent activity peaked at 8.8 in Kamchatka during 2025, followed by lower-magnitude events in 2026. With only months remaining until resolution, the short window further reduces odds absent unusual clustering. A realistic challenge could arise from rapid model revisions or an unexpected multi-segment rupture in a high-strain subduction zone, though current seismic monitoring shows no such precursors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市場開放時間： Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
交易量
$315,257結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes underpins the market's strong "No" consensus at 94.7% implied probability. USGS records show only five confirmed events since 1952, averaging roughly one every 15–25 years globally, with recurrence intervals on individual subduction zones often spanning centuries. No magnitude 9.0+ quake has occurred since the 2011 Tohoku event, and recent activity peaked at 8.8 in Kamchatka during 2025, followed by lower-magnitude events in 2026. With only months remaining until resolution, the short window further reduces odds absent unusual clustering. A realistic challenge could arise from rapid model revisions or an unexpected multi-segment rupture in a high-strain subduction zone, though current seismic monitoring shows no such precursors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$315,257結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETThe extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes underpins the market's strong "No" consensus at 94.7% implied probability. USGS records show only five confirmed events since 1952, averaging roughly one every 15–25 years globally, with recurrence intervals on individual subduction zones often spanning centuries. No magnitude 9.0+ quake has occurred since the 2011 Tohoku event, and recent activity peaked at 8.8 in Kamchatka during 2025, followed by lower-magnitude events in 2026. With only months remaining until resolution, the short window further reduces odds absent unusual clustering. A realistic challenge could arise from rapid model revisions or an unexpected multi-segment rupture in a high-strain subduction zone, though current seismic monitoring shows no such precursors.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions