Recent meteorological observations and model consensus from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency point to limited daytime heating in Tokyo on September 13, with persistent cloud cover, moderate southerly winds, and elevated humidity capping maximum temperatures near 24°C. This aligns with current readings around 25–26°C that are unlikely to climb further amid overcast conditions and a 40–45% chance of showers, consistent with climatological patterns for mid-September where baseline highs average 27–28°C but synoptic influences often suppress peaks. Trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability for 24°C reflects this evidence-based outlook, though scenarios such as unexpected clearing skies, shifts in steering patterns, or localized urban heat effects could push readings to 25°C or higher before official daily resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月13日東京氣溫最高？
9月13日東京氣溫最高？
25°C 31%
26°C 1.5%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$63,250 交易量
$63,250 交易量
2026-09-13
21°C或以下
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
38%
25°C
48%
26°C
2%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C或更高
<1%
25°C 31%
26°C 1.5%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$63,250 交易量
$63,250 交易量
2026-09-13
21°C或以下
$1,377 交易量
<1%
22°C
$3,142 交易量
<1%
23°C
$13,371 交易量
<1%
24°C
$11,187 交易量
38%
25°C
$6,326 交易量
48%
26°C
$8,172 交易量
2%
27°C
$7,840 交易量
<1%
28°C
$6,523 交易量
<1%
29°C
$2,604 交易量
<1%
30°C
$1,226 交易量
<1%
31°C或更高
$1,483 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological observations and model consensus from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency point to limited daytime heating in Tokyo on September 13, with persistent cloud cover, moderate southerly winds, and elevated humidity capping maximum temperatures near 24°C. This aligns with current readings around 25–26°C that are unlikely to climb further amid overcast conditions and a 40–45% chance of showers, consistent with climatological patterns for mid-September where baseline highs average 27–28°C but synoptic influences often suppress peaks. Trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability for 24°C reflects this evidence-based outlook, though scenarios such as unexpected clearing skies, shifts in steering patterns, or localized urban heat effects could push readings to 25°C or higher before official daily resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$63,250結束日期
2026-09-13市場開放時間
Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological observations and model consensus from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency point to limited daytime heating in Tokyo on September 13, with persistent cloud cover, moderate southerly winds, and elevated humidity capping maximum temperatures near 24°C. This aligns with current readings around 25–26°C that are unlikely to climb further amid overcast conditions and a 40–45% chance of showers, consistent with climatological patterns for mid-September where baseline highs average 27–28°C but synoptic influences often suppress peaks. Trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability for 24°C reflects this evidence-based outlook, though scenarios such as unexpected clearing skies, shifts in steering patterns, or localized urban heat effects could push readings to 25°C or higher before official daily resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$63,250結束日期
2026-09-13市場開放時間
Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ETRecent meteorological observations and model consensus from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency point to limited daytime heating in Tokyo on September 13, with persistent cloud cover, moderate southerly winds, and elevated humidity capping maximum temperatures near 24°C. This aligns with current readings around 25–26°C that are unlikely to climb further amid overcast conditions and a 40–45% chance of showers, consistent with climatological patterns for mid-September where baseline highs average 27–28°C but synoptic influences often suppress peaks. Trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability for 24°C reflects this evidence-based outlook, though scenarios such as unexpected clearing skies, shifts in steering patterns, or localized urban heat effects could push readings to 25°C or higher before official daily resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions