Current National Weather Service and GFS ensemble guidance points to a Saturday high in the low-to-mid 80s for Chicago, driven by southerly flow ahead of a weak trough and modest insolation under partly to mostly cloudy skies. This places the most likely maximum near the long-term September 12 average of 77.5 °F but several degrees above recent daily readings, with the tight clustering between 82–85 °F reflecting small differences in forecast cloud cover, lake-breeze timing, and boundary-layer mixing. Traders assign the narrowest edge to 84–85 °F because the latest model runs favor slightly warmer boundary conditions, while any increase in afternoon stratus or earlier onshore flow could cap readings at 82–83 °F. Updated NWS point forecasts and 12Z model cycles expected later today will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月12日芝加哥的最高溫度？
9月12日芝加哥的最高溫度？
82-83°F 32%
84-85°F 32%
78-79°F 18%
80-81°F 14%
最新
最新
2026-09-12
華氏73度或以下
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
10%
78-79°F
18%
80-81°F
14%
82-83°F
32%
84-85°F
32%
86-87°F
7%
88-89°F
7%
90-91°F
7%
92°F或以上
4%
82-83°F 32%
84-85°F 32%
78-79°F 18%
80-81°F 14%
最新
最新
2026-09-12
華氏73度或以下
$0 交易量
<1%
74-75°F
$0 交易量
<1%
76-77°F
$0 交易量
10%
78-79°F
$0 交易量
18%
80-81°F
$28 交易量
14%
82-83°F
$73 交易量
32%
84-85°F
$38 交易量
32%
86-87°F
$0 交易量
7%
88-89°F
$0 交易量
7%
90-91°F
$0 交易量
7%
92°F或以上
$0 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and GFS ensemble guidance points to a Saturday high in the low-to-mid 80s for Chicago, driven by southerly flow ahead of a weak trough and modest insolation under partly to mostly cloudy skies. This places the most likely maximum near the long-term September 12 average of 77.5 °F but several degrees above recent daily readings, with the tight clustering between 82–85 °F reflecting small differences in forecast cloud cover, lake-breeze timing, and boundary-layer mixing. Traders assign the narrowest edge to 84–85 °F because the latest model runs favor slightly warmer boundary conditions, while any increase in afternoon stratus or earlier onshore flow could cap readings at 82–83 °F. Updated NWS point forecasts and 12Z model cycles expected later today will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 10, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
交易量
$139結束日期
2026-09-12市場開放時間
Sep 10, 2026, 2:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and GFS ensemble guidance points to a Saturday high in the low-to-mid 80s for Chicago, driven by southerly flow ahead of a weak trough and modest insolation under partly to mostly cloudy skies. This places the most likely maximum near the long-term September 12 average of 77.5 °F but several degrees above recent daily readings, with the tight clustering between 82–85 °F reflecting small differences in forecast cloud cover, lake-breeze timing, and boundary-layer mixing. Traders assign the narrowest edge to 84–85 °F because the latest model runs favor slightly warmer boundary conditions, while any increase in afternoon stratus or earlier onshore flow could cap readings at 82–83 °F. Updated NWS point forecasts and 12Z model cycles expected later today will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$139結束日期
2026-09-12市場開放時間
Sep 10, 2026, 2:56 AM ETCurrent National Weather Service and GFS ensemble guidance points to a Saturday high in the low-to-mid 80s for Chicago, driven by southerly flow ahead of a weak trough and modest insolation under partly to mostly cloudy skies. This places the most likely maximum near the long-term September 12 average of 77.5 °F but several degrees above recent daily readings, with the tight clustering between 82–85 °F reflecting small differences in forecast cloud cover, lake-breeze timing, and boundary-layer mixing. Traders assign the narrowest edge to 84–85 °F because the latest model runs favor slightly warmer boundary conditions, while any increase in afternoon stratus or earlier onshore flow could cap readings at 82–83 °F. Updated NWS point forecasts and 12Z model cycles expected later today will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions