As of late August 2026, preliminary U.S. tornado reports total 1,399 through the Storm Prediction Center, well above the long-term average of roughly 1,162 and on pace for a final annual count exceeding 1,400 once September–December activity is added. This positions the 1250+ outcome as the dominant market-implied probability at 89%. Key drivers include a pronounced northward shift in storm tracks favoring the Midwest, where Illinois has set records with over 220 preliminary reports—more than four times its typical July total—alongside elevated activity in Indiana, Missouri, and Iowa. Multiple spring outbreaks, enhanced low-level moisture from a warm Gulf of Mexico, and favorable CAPE-shear environments have sustained above-normal counts despite below-average southern Plains activity. With peak season largely concluded yet residual fall tornado potential remaining, traders see limited scope for totals to fall below 1250 barring unusually quiet conditions ahead.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於1250+ 89%
1200–1249 5.3%
1150–1199 4.8%
1100–1149 2.9%
$82,008 交易量
$82,008 交易量
2027-01-09
少於950個
1%
950–999
<1%
1000–1049
<1%
1050–1099
<1%
1100–1149
3%
1150–1199
5%
1200–1249
5%
1250+
89%
1250+ 89%
1200–1249 5.3%
1150–1199 4.8%
1100–1149 2.9%
$82,008 交易量
$82,008 交易量
2027-01-09
少於950個
$23,725 交易量
1%
950–999
$3,618 交易量
<1%
1000–1049
$3,451 交易量
<1%
1050–1099
$9,172 交易量
<1%
1100–1149
$3,254 交易量
3%
1150–1199
$4,082 交易量
5%
1200–1249
$15,917 交易量
5%
1250+
$18,789 交易量
89%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.As of late August 2026, preliminary U.S. tornado reports total 1,399 through the Storm Prediction Center, well above the long-term average of roughly 1,162 and on pace for a final annual count exceeding 1,400 once September–December activity is added. This positions the 1250+ outcome as the dominant market-implied probability at 89%. Key drivers include a pronounced northward shift in storm tracks favoring the Midwest, where Illinois has set records with over 220 preliminary reports—more than four times its typical July total—alongside elevated activity in Indiana, Missouri, and Iowa. Multiple spring outbreaks, enhanced low-level moisture from a warm Gulf of Mexico, and favorable CAPE-shear environments have sustained above-normal counts despite below-average southern Plains activity. With peak season largely concluded yet residual fall tornado potential remaining, traders see limited scope for totals to fall below 1250 barring unusually quiet conditions ahead.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
市場開放時間： Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
交易量
$82,008結束日期
2027-01-10市場開放時間
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.As of late August 2026, preliminary U.S. tornado reports total 1,399 through the Storm Prediction Center, well above the long-term average of roughly 1,162 and on pace for a final annual count exceeding 1,400 once September–December activity is added. This positions the 1250+ outcome as the dominant market-implied probability at 89%. Key drivers include a pronounced northward shift in storm tracks favoring the Midwest, where Illinois has set records with over 220 preliminary reports—more than four times its typical July total—alongside elevated activity in Indiana, Missouri, and Iowa. Multiple spring outbreaks, enhanced low-level moisture from a warm Gulf of Mexico, and favorable CAPE-shear environments have sustained above-normal counts despite below-average southern Plains activity. With peak season largely concluded yet residual fall tornado potential remaining, traders see limited scope for totals to fall below 1250 barring unusually quiet conditions ahead.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
交易量
$82,008結束日期
2027-01-10市場開放時間
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETAs of late August 2026, preliminary U.S. tornado reports total 1,399 through the Storm Prediction Center, well above the long-term average of roughly 1,162 and on pace for a final annual count exceeding 1,400 once September–December activity is added. This positions the 1250+ outcome as the dominant market-implied probability at 89%. Key drivers include a pronounced northward shift in storm tracks favoring the Midwest, where Illinois has set records with over 220 preliminary reports—more than four times its typical July total—alongside elevated activity in Indiana, Missouri, and Iowa. Multiple spring outbreaks, enhanced low-level moisture from a warm Gulf of Mexico, and favorable CAPE-shear environments have sustained above-normal counts despite below-average southern Plains activity. With peak season largely concluded yet residual fall tornado potential remaining, traders see limited scope for totals to fall below 1250 barring unusually quiet conditions ahead.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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