**Trader consensus heavily favored a 68-69°F low (95.5% implied probability) because official observations from New York-area stations, including Kennedy Airport, recorded a minimum of 69°F early on September 3, 2026, with Central Park reports near 67°F.** This aligned closely with National Weather Service forecasts issued the prior evening, which projected overnight lows in the upper 60s amid a warm, humid air mass, light winds, and partial cloud cover that limited radiative cooling. Climatological norms for early September place average lows around 65°F, but recent upstream conditions and model consensus (including short-range guidance) supported minimal overnight temperature drop, keeping the low well above historical extremes such as the 50°F record. The tight clustering around 68-69°F reflects high confidence in these measurements and the absence of any late-day cooling mechanisms like stronger advection or clearing skies. Only rare, unforecasted developments—such as an abrupt cold front or unusually clear, calm conditions enhancing heat loss—could have shifted the outcome lower, but none materialized.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月3日紐約市的最低溫度？
9月3日紐約市的最低溫度？
68-69°F 98%
64-65°F 3.9%
66-67°F 1%
63°F或以下 <1%
$45,430 交易量
$45,430 交易量
2026-09-03
63°F或以下
1%
64-65°F
4%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
98%
70-71華氏度
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77華氏度
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82°F或更高
<1%
68-69°F 98%
64-65°F 3.9%
66-67°F 1%
63°F或以下 <1%
$45,430 交易量
$45,430 交易量
2026-09-03
63°F或以下
$1,248 交易量
1%
64-65°F
$1,206 交易量
4%
66-67°F
$804 交易量
1%
68-69°F
$3,557 交易量
98%
70-71華氏度
$36,456 交易量
<1%
72-73°F
$788 交易量
<1%
74-75°F
$712 交易量
<1%
76-77華氏度
$47 交易量
<1%
78-79°F
$212 交易量
<1%
80-81°F
$200 交易量
<1%
82°F或更高
$200 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favored a 68-69°F low (95.5% implied probability) because official observations from New York-area stations, including Kennedy Airport, recorded a minimum of 69°F early on September 3, 2026, with Central Park reports near 67°F.**
This aligned closely with National Weather Service forecasts issued the prior evening, which projected overnight lows in the upper 60s amid a warm, humid air mass, light winds, and partial cloud cover that limited radiative cooling. Climatological norms for early September place average lows around 65°F, but recent upstream conditions and model consensus (including short-range guidance) supported minimal overnight temperature drop, keeping the low well above historical extremes such as the 50°F record.
The tight clustering around 68-69°F reflects high confidence in these measurements and the absence of any late-day cooling mechanisms like stronger advection or clearing skies. Only rare, unforecasted developments—such as an abrupt cold front or unusually clear, calm conditions enhancing heat loss—could have shifted the outcome lower, but none materialized.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 1, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
交易量
$45,430結束日期
2026-09-03市場開放時間
Sep 1, 2026, 3:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favored a 68-69°F low (95.5% implied probability) because official observations from New York-area stations, including Kennedy Airport, recorded a minimum of 69°F early on September 3, 2026, with Central Park reports near 67°F.**
This aligned closely with National Weather Service forecasts issued the prior evening, which projected overnight lows in the upper 60s amid a warm, humid air mass, light winds, and partial cloud cover that limited radiative cooling. Climatological norms for early September place average lows around 65°F, but recent upstream conditions and model consensus (including short-range guidance) supported minimal overnight temperature drop, keeping the low well above historical extremes such as the 50°F record.
The tight clustering around 68-69°F reflects high confidence in these measurements and the absence of any late-day cooling mechanisms like stronger advection or clearing skies. Only rare, unforecasted developments—such as an abrupt cold front or unusually clear, calm conditions enhancing heat loss—could have shifted the outcome lower, but none materialized.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$45,430結束日期
2026-09-03市場開放時間
Sep 1, 2026, 3:29 AM ET**Trader consensus heavily favored a 68-69°F low (95.5% implied probability) because official observations from New York-area stations, including Kennedy Airport, recorded a minimum of 69°F early on September 3, 2026, with Central Park reports near 67°F.** This aligned closely with National Weather Service forecasts issued the prior evening, which projected overnight lows in the upper 60s amid a warm, humid air mass, light winds, and partial cloud cover that limited radiative cooling. Climatological norms for early September place average lows around 65°F, but recent upstream conditions and model consensus (including short-range guidance) supported minimal overnight temperature drop, keeping the low well above historical extremes such as the 50°F record. The tight clustering around 68-69°F reflects high confidence in these measurements and the absence of any late-day cooling mechanisms like stronger advection or clearing skies. Only rare, unforecasted developments—such as an abrupt cold front or unusually clear, calm conditions enhancing heat loss—could have shifted the outcome lower, but none materialized.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions