Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicate a shift to cloudy skies with frequent scattered showers and thunderstorms over Tokyo on September 4, driven by a frontal system and increased moisture advection. This pattern suppresses daytime heating through reduced solar insolation and evaporative cooling, capping the daily maximum near 24–27 °C—well below the 30–33 °C readings observed the prior two days. Trader sentiment clusters around 26–27 °C because multiple high-resolution runs converge on that range while still allowing for modest variance in shower timing and intensity. Historical September climatology (mean high ~29–30 °C) underscores the anomaly, and updated model guidance ahead of resolution will determine whether any break in cloud cover pushes the peak toward 28 °C or keeps it lower.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月4日東京氣溫最高？
9月4日東京氣溫最高？
27°C 36%
26°C 25%
28°C 19%
25°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
21°C或以下
2%
22°C
2%
23°C
2%
24°C
3%
25°C
7%
26°C
25%
27°C
36%
28°C
19%
29°C
5%
30°C
3%
31°C或更高
4%
27°C 36%
26°C 25%
28°C 19%
25°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
21°C或以下
$0 交易量
2%
22°C
$0 交易量
2%
23°C
$303 交易量
2%
24°C
$437 交易量
3%
25°C
$301 交易量
7%
26°C
$57 交易量
25%
27°C
$152 交易量
36%
28°C
$230 交易量
19%
29°C
$46 交易量
5%
30°C
$13 交易量
3%
31°C或更高
$40 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicate a shift to cloudy skies with frequent scattered showers and thunderstorms over Tokyo on September 4, driven by a frontal system and increased moisture advection. This pattern suppresses daytime heating through reduced solar insolation and evaporative cooling, capping the daily maximum near 24–27 °C—well below the 30–33 °C readings observed the prior two days. Trader sentiment clusters around 26–27 °C because multiple high-resolution runs converge on that range while still allowing for modest variance in shower timing and intensity. Historical September climatology (mean high ~29–30 °C) underscores the anomaly, and updated model guidance ahead of resolution will determine whether any break in cloud cover pushes the peak toward 28 °C or keeps it lower.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$1,580結束日期
2026-09-04市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicate a shift to cloudy skies with frequent scattered showers and thunderstorms over Tokyo on September 4, driven by a frontal system and increased moisture advection. This pattern suppresses daytime heating through reduced solar insolation and evaporative cooling, capping the daily maximum near 24–27 °C—well below the 30–33 °C readings observed the prior two days. Trader sentiment clusters around 26–27 °C because multiple high-resolution runs converge on that range while still allowing for modest variance in shower timing and intensity. Historical September climatology (mean high ~29–30 °C) underscores the anomaly, and updated model guidance ahead of resolution will determine whether any break in cloud cover pushes the peak toward 28 °C or keeps it lower.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,580結束日期
2026-09-04市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ETRecent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicate a shift to cloudy skies with frequent scattered showers and thunderstorms over Tokyo on September 4, driven by a frontal system and increased moisture advection. This pattern suppresses daytime heating through reduced solar insolation and evaporative cooling, capping the daily maximum near 24–27 °C—well below the 30–33 °C readings observed the prior two days. Trader sentiment clusters around 26–27 °C because multiple high-resolution runs converge on that range while still allowing for modest variance in shower timing and intensity. Historical September climatology (mean high ~29–30 °C) underscores the anomaly, and updated model guidance ahead of resolution will determine whether any break in cloud cover pushes the peak toward 28 °C or keeps it lower.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions