Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models show Tokyo's daily maximum temperature on September 2 reaching exactly 31°C amid mostly cloudy skies and southerly flow that limits afternoon heating. Midday observations near 27°C align with ensemble runs projecting a brief peak before evening cooling, consistent with typical early-September climatology for the region. This strong model consensus and real-time data underpin the market's 100% implied probability for 31°C. A realistic challenge could arise only from unexpected cloud dissipation boosting insolation or a last-minute revision in official Japan Meteorological Agency records, though such shifts appear unlikely given current atmospheric conditions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月2日東京氣溫最高？
9月2日東京氣溫最高？
31°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$58,225 交易量
$58,225 交易量
2026-09-02
26°C or below
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C or higher
No
31°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$58,225 交易量
$58,225 交易量
2026-09-02
26°C or below
$2,574 交易量
No
27°C
$3,729 交易量
No
28°C
$3,960 交易量
No
29°C
$3,993 交易量
No
30°C
$7,588 交易量
No
31°C
$10,147 交易量
Yes
32°C
$10,315 交易量
No
33°C
$11,452 交易量
No
34°C
$2,510 交易量
No
35°C
$1,489 交易量
No
36°C or higher
$468 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models show Tokyo's daily maximum temperature on September 2 reaching exactly 31°C amid mostly cloudy skies and southerly flow that limits afternoon heating. Midday observations near 27°C align with ensemble runs projecting a brief peak before evening cooling, consistent with typical early-September climatology for the region. This strong model consensus and real-time data underpin the market's 100% implied probability for 31°C. A realistic challenge could arise only from unexpected cloud dissipation boosting insolation or a last-minute revision in official Japan Meteorological Agency records, though such shifts appear unlikely given current atmospheric conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$58,225結束日期
2026-09-02市場開放時間
Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models show Tokyo's daily maximum temperature on September 2 reaching exactly 31°C amid mostly cloudy skies and southerly flow that limits afternoon heating. Midday observations near 27°C align with ensemble runs projecting a brief peak before evening cooling, consistent with typical early-September climatology for the region. This strong model consensus and real-time data underpin the market's 100% implied probability for 31°C. A realistic challenge could arise only from unexpected cloud dissipation boosting insolation or a last-minute revision in official Japan Meteorological Agency records, though such shifts appear unlikely given current atmospheric conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$58,225結束日期
2026-09-02市場開放時間
Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Official forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models show Tokyo's daily maximum temperature on September 2 reaching exactly 31°C amid mostly cloudy skies and southerly flow that limits afternoon heating. Midday observations near 27°C align with ensemble runs projecting a brief peak before evening cooling, consistent with typical early-September climatology for the region. This strong model consensus and real-time data underpin the market's 100% implied probability for 31°C. A realistic challenge could arise only from unexpected cloud dissipation boosting insolation or a last-minute revision in official Japan Meteorological Agency records, though such shifts appear unlikely given current atmospheric conditions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions