**Persistent cloud cover, easterly flow, and residual moisture from the current frontal system are capping daytime heating and anchoring market-implied odds toward 74–77 °F highs for New York City on September 2.** Official guidance and ensemble forecasts (including GFS and regional models) show a post-frontal regime with east to southeast winds of 10–15 mph, widespread stratus, and only a slight afternoon shower chance (20–30 %). These conditions limit insolation and keep surface temperatures in the mid-70s rather than rebounding toward the long-term September 2 average of ~80.5 °F. Recent model runs have converged on highs of 72–76 °F across Central Park and area airports, with limited upside risk unless skies clear more than expected. Traders have priced the tight 74–77 °F cluster highest because the setup favors modest warming under humid, overcast skies without the strong southerly flow or sunshine needed for 78 °F or above. Resolution hinges on the official NWS maximum at Central Park, so any late-day clearing or model shift could nudge probabilities, but current conditions point to a below-normal peak.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月2日紐約市的最高溫度？
9月2日紐約市的最高溫度？
76-77°F 36%
74-75°F 31%
78-79°F 12%
72-73°F 12%
最新
$11,211 交易量
最新
$11,211 交易量
2026-09-02
69°F or below
1%
70-71°F
4%
72-73°F
12%
74-75°F
31%
76-77°F
36%
78-79°F
12%
80-81°F
4%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88°F或更高
<1%
76-77°F 36%
74-75°F 31%
78-79°F 12%
72-73°F 12%
最新
$11,211 交易量
最新
$11,211 交易量
2026-09-02
69°F or below
$339 交易量
1%
70-71°F
$1,056 交易量
4%
72-73°F
$2,090 交易量
12%
74-75°F
$1,259 交易量
31%
76-77°F
$1,676 交易量
36%
78-79°F
$2,013 交易量
12%
80-81°F
$537 交易量
4%
82-83°F
$383 交易量
2%
84-85°F
$968 交易量
<1%
86-87°F
$536 交易量
<1%
88°F或更高
$354 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent cloud cover, easterly flow, and residual moisture from the current frontal system are capping daytime heating and anchoring market-implied odds toward 74–77 °F highs for New York City on September 2.**
Official guidance and ensemble forecasts (including GFS and regional models) show a post-frontal regime with east to southeast winds of 10–15 mph, widespread stratus, and only a slight afternoon shower chance (20–30 %). These conditions limit insolation and keep surface temperatures in the mid-70s rather than rebounding toward the long-term September 2 average of ~80.5 °F. Recent model runs have converged on highs of 72–76 °F across Central Park and area airports, with limited upside risk unless skies clear more than expected. Traders have priced the tight 74–77 °F cluster highest because the setup favors modest warming under humid, overcast skies without the strong southerly flow or sunshine needed for 78 °F or above. Resolution hinges on the official NWS maximum at Central Park, so any late-day clearing or model shift could nudge probabilities, but current conditions point to a below-normal peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 31, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
交易量
$11,211結束日期
2026-09-02市場開放時間
Aug 31, 2026, 3:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent cloud cover, easterly flow, and residual moisture from the current frontal system are capping daytime heating and anchoring market-implied odds toward 74–77 °F highs for New York City on September 2.**
Official guidance and ensemble forecasts (including GFS and regional models) show a post-frontal regime with east to southeast winds of 10–15 mph, widespread stratus, and only a slight afternoon shower chance (20–30 %). These conditions limit insolation and keep surface temperatures in the mid-70s rather than rebounding toward the long-term September 2 average of ~80.5 °F. Recent model runs have converged on highs of 72–76 °F across Central Park and area airports, with limited upside risk unless skies clear more than expected. Traders have priced the tight 74–77 °F cluster highest because the setup favors modest warming under humid, overcast skies without the strong southerly flow or sunshine needed for 78 °F or above. Resolution hinges on the official NWS maximum at Central Park, so any late-day clearing or model shift could nudge probabilities, but current conditions point to a below-normal peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$11,211結束日期
2026-09-02市場開放時間
Aug 31, 2026, 3:56 AM ET**Persistent cloud cover, easterly flow, and residual moisture from the current frontal system are capping daytime heating and anchoring market-implied odds toward 74–77 °F highs for New York City on September 2.** Official guidance and ensemble forecasts (including GFS and regional models) show a post-frontal regime with east to southeast winds of 10–15 mph, widespread stratus, and only a slight afternoon shower chance (20–30 %). These conditions limit insolation and keep surface temperatures in the mid-70s rather than rebounding toward the long-term September 2 average of ~80.5 °F. Recent model runs have converged on highs of 72–76 °F across Central Park and area airports, with limited upside risk unless skies clear more than expected. Traders have priced the tight 74–77 °F cluster highest because the setup favors modest warming under humid, overcast skies without the strong southerly flow or sunshine needed for 78 °F or above. Resolution hinges on the official NWS maximum at Central Park, so any late-day clearing or model shift could nudge probabilities, but current conditions point to a below-normal peak.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions