**Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models project a daytime high near 88–89°F for Miami on September 2, 2026, under mostly sunny skies with a 40–60% chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.** High humidity will push heat indices above 100°F, but developing convection and sea-breeze effects are expected to limit further warming. Historical climatology for early September shows average highs around 89–90°F at Miami International Airport, providing context for why the market assigns the highest probability (53%) to the 90–91°F bin. Trader consensus around 90–91°F, with secondary weight on 88–89°F (22%) and 92–93°F (17%), reflects the balance between the current forecast guidance and typical late-summer variability. Afternoon thunderstorm timing remains the key uncertainty: earlier or stronger storms could cap temperatures closer to 88°F, while delayed convection might allow brief spikes into the low 90s. No anomalous heat or blocking patterns are evident in recent observations, keeping implied odds aligned with routine seasonal conditions rather than extremes. Updated model runs and real-time observations through the afternoon will likely refine these probabilities before market resolution.