Strong southeasterly winds and clearing skies after Thursday’s rain and cloud cover are the main near-term drivers, with high pressure promoting subsidence and dry-air advection that favors daytime warming. Multiple forecasts converge on a maximum near 18–20 °C on 4 September, consistent with typical early-spring climatology for Cape Town when the south-easter mixes the boundary layer yet allows sufficient insolation. Differences among 17 °C and 21 °C outcomes hinge on small variations in wind strength, exact clearing timing, and model spread in surface heating rates; stronger winds could enhance mixing and cap the peak closer to 17–18 °C, while lighter flow or delayed clearing could permit brief excursions toward 21 °C. Market-implied probabilities reflect this narrow uncertainty range two days before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於開普敦9月4日最高溫度？
開普敦9月4日最高溫度？
19°C 36%
20°C 33%
21°C 22%
18°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
14°C或以下
3%
15°C
3%
16°C
6%
17°C
9%
18°C
13%
19°C
36%
20°C
33%
21°C
22%
22°C
10%
23°C
8%
24°C或以上
4%
19°C 36%
20°C 33%
21°C 22%
18°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
14°C或以下
$10 交易量
3%
15°C
$0 交易量
3%
16°C
$190 交易量
6%
17°C
$17 交易量
9%
18°C
$0 交易量
13%
19°C
$11 交易量
36%
20°C
$0 交易量
33%
21°C
$0 交易量
22%
22°C
$0 交易量
10%
23°C
$0 交易量
8%
24°C或以上
$0 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong southeasterly winds and clearing skies after Thursday’s rain and cloud cover are the main near-term drivers, with high pressure promoting subsidence and dry-air advection that favors daytime warming. Multiple forecasts converge on a maximum near 18–20 °C on 4 September, consistent with typical early-spring climatology for Cape Town when the south-easter mixes the boundary layer yet allows sufficient insolation. Differences among 17 °C and 21 °C outcomes hinge on small variations in wind strength, exact clearing timing, and model spread in surface heating rates; stronger winds could enhance mixing and cap the peak closer to 17–18 °C, while lighter flow or delayed clearing could permit brief excursions toward 21 °C. Market-implied probabilities reflect this narrow uncertainty range two days before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
交易量
$229結束日期
2026-09-04市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong southeasterly winds and clearing skies after Thursday’s rain and cloud cover are the main near-term drivers, with high pressure promoting subsidence and dry-air advection that favors daytime warming. Multiple forecasts converge on a maximum near 18–20 °C on 4 September, consistent with typical early-spring climatology for Cape Town when the south-easter mixes the boundary layer yet allows sufficient insolation. Differences among 17 °C and 21 °C outcomes hinge on small variations in wind strength, exact clearing timing, and model spread in surface heating rates; stronger winds could enhance mixing and cap the peak closer to 17–18 °C, while lighter flow or delayed clearing could permit brief excursions toward 21 °C. Market-implied probabilities reflect this narrow uncertainty range two days before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$229結束日期
2026-09-04市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ETStrong southeasterly winds and clearing skies after Thursday’s rain and cloud cover are the main near-term drivers, with high pressure promoting subsidence and dry-air advection that favors daytime warming. Multiple forecasts converge on a maximum near 18–20 °C on 4 September, consistent with typical early-spring climatology for Cape Town when the south-easter mixes the boundary layer yet allows sufficient insolation. Differences among 17 °C and 21 °C outcomes hinge on small variations in wind strength, exact clearing timing, and model spread in surface heating rates; stronger winds could enhance mixing and cap the peak closer to 17–18 °C, while lighter flow or delayed clearing could permit brief excursions toward 21 °C. Market-implied probabilities reflect this narrow uncertainty range two days before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions