Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago on September 4 points to a high in the mid-to-upper 80s amid increasing cloud cover, a 40-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and an easterly wind shift that favors Lake Michigan moderation. This setup explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 86–89°F, as lake-breeze effects and convective cooling can shave several degrees from inland maxima while limiting full solar heating. A lingering warm, humid airmass from earlier in the week supports the upper end of that range, yet model consensus on storm timing and lake influence keeps lower-80s outcomes viable. Updated forecast discussions and morning model runs will likely refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月4日芝加哥的最高溫度？
9月4日芝加哥的最高溫度？
82-83°F 25%
88-89°F 19%
86-87°F 19%
84-85°F 15%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
華氏79度或以下
1%
80-81°F
7%
82-83°F
25%
84-85°F
15%
86-87°F
19%
88-89°F
19%
90-91°F
6%
92-93°F
7%
94-95°F
6%
96-97°F
6%
98°F或以上
2%
82-83°F 25%
88-89°F 19%
86-87°F 19%
84-85°F 15%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
華氏79度或以下
$0 交易量
1%
80-81°F
$0 交易量
7%
82-83°F
$0 交易量
25%
84-85°F
$0 交易量
15%
86-87°F
$0 交易量
19%
88-89°F
$110 交易量
19%
90-91°F
$20 交易量
6%
92-93°F
$0 交易量
7%
94-95°F
$0 交易量
6%
96-97°F
$0 交易量
6%
98°F或以上
$0 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago on September 4 points to a high in the mid-to-upper 80s amid increasing cloud cover, a 40-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and an easterly wind shift that favors Lake Michigan moderation. This setup explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 86–89°F, as lake-breeze effects and convective cooling can shave several degrees from inland maxima while limiting full solar heating. A lingering warm, humid airmass from earlier in the week supports the upper end of that range, yet model consensus on storm timing and lake influence keeps lower-80s outcomes viable. Updated forecast discussions and morning model runs will likely refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
交易量
$130結束日期
2026-09-04市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 3:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago on September 4 points to a high in the mid-to-upper 80s amid increasing cloud cover, a 40-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and an easterly wind shift that favors Lake Michigan moderation. This setup explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 86–89°F, as lake-breeze effects and convective cooling can shave several degrees from inland maxima while limiting full solar heating. A lingering warm, humid airmass from earlier in the week supports the upper end of that range, yet model consensus on storm timing and lake influence keeps lower-80s outcomes viable. Updated forecast discussions and morning model runs will likely refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$130結束日期
2026-09-04市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 3:56 AM ETRecent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago on September 4 points to a high in the mid-to-upper 80s amid increasing cloud cover, a 40-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and an easterly wind shift that favors Lake Michigan moderation. This setup explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 86–89°F, as lake-breeze effects and convective cooling can shave several degrees from inland maxima while limiting full solar heating. A lingering warm, humid airmass from earlier in the week supports the upper end of that range, yet model consensus on storm timing and lake influence keeps lower-80s outcomes viable. Updated forecast discussions and morning model runs will likely refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions