**Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for New York City points to a high temperature in the low-to-mid 80s on Friday, September 4, 2026, consistent with the market’s leading 84–85 °F bin (42.5 % implied probability) and the closely trailing 86–87 °F outcome (30 %).** A cold front crossing the region on September 3 will shift winds to the northwest, clearing skies and reducing humidity after periods of showers and thunderstorms. This post-frontal regime favors mostly sunny conditions and moderate daytime heating, with highs expected near or slightly above the 1991–2020 climatological average of ~80 °F. Northwest flow typically limits extreme warmth while still allowing temperatures to reach the mid-80s under full sun. Forecasts from multiple sources (including WeatherBug Central Park and JFK products issued September 2) converge on an 84 °F high, with limited upside risk from residual moisture or model spread. Historical analogs for early-September post-frontal days show a narrow distribution centered in the low-to-mid 80s, supporting the current market weighting toward 84–87 °F while keeping lower or higher bins at single-digit probabilities. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion will be the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in these implied odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月4日紐約市的最高溫度？
9月4日紐約市的最高溫度？
84-85°F 43%
86-87°F 30%
82-83°F 16%
78-79°F 9%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
華氏73度或以下
1%
74-75°F
3%
76-77°F
8%
78-79°F
9%
80-81°F
7%
82-83°F
16%
84-85°F
43%
86-87°F
30%
88-89°F
5%
90-91°F
8%
92°F或以上
4%
84-85°F 43%
86-87°F 30%
82-83°F 16%
78-79°F 9%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
華氏73度或以下
$0 交易量
1%
74-75°F
$0 交易量
3%
76-77°F
$0 交易量
8%
78-79°F
$0 交易量
9%
80-81°F
$13 交易量
7%
82-83°F
$25 交易量
16%
84-85°F
$186 交易量
43%
86-87°F
$110 交易量
30%
88-89°F
$334 交易量
5%
90-91°F
$0 交易量
8%
92°F或以上
$0 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for New York City points to a high temperature in the low-to-mid 80s on Friday, September 4, 2026, consistent with the market’s leading 84–85 °F bin (42.5 % implied probability) and the closely trailing 86–87 °F outcome (30 %).**
A cold front crossing the region on September 3 will shift winds to the northwest, clearing skies and reducing humidity after periods of showers and thunderstorms. This post-frontal regime favors mostly sunny conditions and moderate daytime heating, with highs expected near or slightly above the 1991–2020 climatological average of ~80 °F. Northwest flow typically limits extreme warmth while still allowing temperatures to reach the mid-80s under full sun.
Forecasts from multiple sources (including WeatherBug Central Park and JFK products issued September 2) converge on an 84 °F high, with limited upside risk from residual moisture or model spread. Historical analogs for early-September post-frontal days show a narrow distribution centered in the low-to-mid 80s, supporting the current market weighting toward 84–87 °F while keeping lower or higher bins at single-digit probabilities. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion will be the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in these implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 3:55 AM ET
交易量
$668結束日期
2026-09-04市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 3:55 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for New York City points to a high temperature in the low-to-mid 80s on Friday, September 4, 2026, consistent with the market’s leading 84–85 °F bin (42.5 % implied probability) and the closely trailing 86–87 °F outcome (30 %).**
A cold front crossing the region on September 3 will shift winds to the northwest, clearing skies and reducing humidity after periods of showers and thunderstorms. This post-frontal regime favors mostly sunny conditions and moderate daytime heating, with highs expected near or slightly above the 1991–2020 climatological average of ~80 °F. Northwest flow typically limits extreme warmth while still allowing temperatures to reach the mid-80s under full sun.
Forecasts from multiple sources (including WeatherBug Central Park and JFK products issued September 2) converge on an 84 °F high, with limited upside risk from residual moisture or model spread. Historical analogs for early-September post-frontal days show a narrow distribution centered in the low-to-mid 80s, supporting the current market weighting toward 84–87 °F while keeping lower or higher bins at single-digit probabilities. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion will be the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in these implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$668結束日期
2026-09-04市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 3:55 AM ET**Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for New York City points to a high temperature in the low-to-mid 80s on Friday, September 4, 2026, consistent with the market’s leading 84–85 °F bin (42.5 % implied probability) and the closely trailing 86–87 °F outcome (30 %).** A cold front crossing the region on September 3 will shift winds to the northwest, clearing skies and reducing humidity after periods of showers and thunderstorms. This post-frontal regime favors mostly sunny conditions and moderate daytime heating, with highs expected near or slightly above the 1991–2020 climatological average of ~80 °F. Northwest flow typically limits extreme warmth while still allowing temperatures to reach the mid-80s under full sun. Forecasts from multiple sources (including WeatherBug Central Park and JFK products issued September 2) converge on an 84 °F high, with limited upside risk from residual moisture or model spread. Historical analogs for early-September post-frontal days show a narrow distribution centered in the low-to-mid 80s, supporting the current market weighting toward 84–87 °F while keeping lower or higher bins at single-digit probabilities. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion will be the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in these implied odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions