Recent forecast guidance from sources including the Met Office and WeatherBug points to a maximum of 14–15°C in Wellington on September 2, driven by northwesterly winds and mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions typical of early spring in the region. This positions 16°C as the clear market leader at 60.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on modest warming above seasonal norms near 13–14°C without strong warm advection or blocking highs. Lower odds for 17°C or above stem from limited model support for further intensification, while cooler outcomes remain unlikely absent a sudden southerly shift. Updated model runs in the coming hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月2日惠靈頓的最高溫度？
9月2日惠靈頓的最高溫度？
16°C 61%
17°C 18%
15°C 16%
18°C 3%
最新
最新
2026-09-02
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
16%
16°C
61%
17°C
18%
18°C
3%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
16°C 61%
17°C 18%
15°C 16%
18°C 3%
最新
最新
2026-09-02
10°C or below
$315 交易量
<1%
11°C
$375 交易量
1%
12°C
$407 交易量
<1%
13°C
$458 交易量
1%
14°C
$466 交易量
2%
15°C
$2,169 交易量
16%
16°C
$901 交易量
61%
17°C
$1,164 交易量
18%
18°C
$542 交易量
3%
19°C
$412 交易量
<1%
20°C or higher
$222 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from sources including the Met Office and WeatherBug points to a maximum of 14–15°C in Wellington on September 2, driven by northwesterly winds and mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions typical of early spring in the region. This positions 16°C as the clear market leader at 60.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on modest warming above seasonal norms near 13–14°C without strong warm advection or blocking highs. Lower odds for 17°C or above stem from limited model support for further intensification, while cooler outcomes remain unlikely absent a sudden southerly shift. Updated model runs in the coming hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$7,431結束日期
2026-09-02市場開放時間
Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from sources including the Met Office and WeatherBug points to a maximum of 14–15°C in Wellington on September 2, driven by northwesterly winds and mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions typical of early spring in the region. This positions 16°C as the clear market leader at 60.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on modest warming above seasonal norms near 13–14°C without strong warm advection or blocking highs. Lower odds for 17°C or above stem from limited model support for further intensification, while cooler outcomes remain unlikely absent a sudden southerly shift. Updated model runs in the coming hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$7,431結束日期
2026-09-02市場開放時間
Aug 31, 2026, 12:56 AM ETRecent forecast guidance from sources including the Met Office and WeatherBug points to a maximum of 14–15°C in Wellington on September 2, driven by northwesterly winds and mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions typical of early spring in the region. This positions 16°C as the clear market leader at 60.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on modest warming above seasonal norms near 13–14°C without strong warm advection or blocking highs. Lower odds for 17°C or above stem from limited model support for further intensification, while cooler outcomes remain unlikely absent a sudden southerly shift. Updated model runs in the coming hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions