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icon for 2026年9月的美國龍捲風

2026年9月的美國龍捲風

icon for 2026年9月的美國龍捲風

2026年9月的美國龍捲風

10月 15

10月 15

50 - 74 52%

75 - 124 47%

25 - 49 46%

少於25個 42%

Polymarket
最新

50 - 74 52%

75 - 124 47%

25 - 49 46%

少於25個 42%

Polymarket
最新

少於25個

$0 交易量

42%

25 - 49

$0 交易量

46%

50 - 74

$0 交易量

52%

75 - 124

$0 交易量

47%

125 個或更多

$0 交易量

21%

This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count. The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket. As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time. If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments. The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time. If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Strong El Niño conditions strengthening through August 2026, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures near +1.8°C, are the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment for September U.S. tornado counts. This pattern historically suppresses activity by enhancing vertical wind shear, strengthening the subtropical jet, and limiting Gulf moisture transport, often favoring fewer tornadoes than during neutral or La Niña years. Recent climatology places the September average near 66 tornadoes (1991-2020), with notable variability from tropical cyclone remnants. The closely matched market-implied odds across bins around this baseline reflect uncertainty in how intensely the El Niño signal will couple with fall transition patterns, including potential model spread in CPC outlooks and any late-season convective outbreaks.

This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).

Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.

The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.

As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.

If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.

The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.

If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
交易量
$0
結束日期
2026-10-15
市場開放時間
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET

結算方

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count. The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket. As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time. If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments. The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time. If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count. The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket. As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time. If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments. The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time. If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Strong El Niño conditions strengthening through August 2026, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures near +1.8°C, are the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment for September U.S. tornado counts. This pattern historically suppresses activity by enhancing vertical wind shear, strengthening the subtropical jet, and limiting Gulf moisture transport, often favoring fewer tornadoes than during neutral or La Niña years. Recent climatology places the September average near 66 tornadoes (1991-2020), with notable variability from tropical cyclone remnants. The closely matched market-implied odds across bins around this baseline reflect uncertainty in how intensely the El Niño signal will couple with fall transition patterns, including potential model spread in CPC outlooks and any late-season convective outbreaks.

This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).

Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.

The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.

As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.

If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.

The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.

If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
交易量
$0
結束日期
2026-10-15
市場開放時間
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET

結算方

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count. The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket. As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time. If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments. The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time. If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年9月的美國龍捲風" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "50 - 74" at 52%, followed by "75 - 124" at 47%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 52¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"2026年9月的美國龍捲風" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "2026年9月的美國龍捲風," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年9月的美國龍捲風" is "50 - 74" at 52%, meaning the market assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "75 - 124" at 47%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年9月的美國龍捲風" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.