Recent official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models (including ECMWF and GFS) indicate Chengdu's September 4 high will likely peak between 32–34°C under continued influence of the subtropical high, producing mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions with light winds and minimal precipitation in the urban basin. Recent days have seen maxima of 33–34°C, and the absence of a strong cold front or significant cloud build-up before resolution supports the market's emphasis on 34°C (36% implied) and nearby outcomes. Historical early-September baselines average near 30–32°C, but the current warm anomaly and stable steering pattern elevate odds for the upper end of that range while keeping extremes below 30°C or above 36°C unlikely. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月4日成都最高溫度？
9月4日成都最高溫度？
34°C 36%
33°C 23%
35°C 18%
32°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
27°C或以下
3%
28°C
4%
29°C
4%
30°C
2%
31°C
4%
32°C
12%
33°C
23%
34°C
36%
35°C
18%
36°C
6%
37°C或以上
2%
34°C 36%
33°C 23%
35°C 18%
32°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-09-04
27°C或以下
$0 交易量
3%
28°C
$190 交易量
4%
29°C
$80 交易量
4%
30°C
$24 交易量
2%
31°C
$30 交易量
4%
32°C
$11 交易量
12%
33°C
$3 交易量
23%
34°C
$12 交易量
36%
35°C
$80 交易量
18%
36°C
$44 交易量
6%
37°C或以上
$100 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models (including ECMWF and GFS) indicate Chengdu's September 4 high will likely peak between 32–34°C under continued influence of the subtropical high, producing mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions with light winds and minimal precipitation in the urban basin. Recent days have seen maxima of 33–34°C, and the absence of a strong cold front or significant cloud build-up before resolution supports the market's emphasis on 34°C (36% implied) and nearby outcomes. Historical early-September baselines average near 30–32°C, but the current warm anomaly and stable steering pattern elevate odds for the upper end of that range while keeping extremes below 30°C or above 36°C unlikely. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$574結束日期
2026-09-04市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models (including ECMWF and GFS) indicate Chengdu's September 4 high will likely peak between 32–34°C under continued influence of the subtropical high, producing mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions with light winds and minimal precipitation in the urban basin. Recent days have seen maxima of 33–34°C, and the absence of a strong cold front or significant cloud build-up before resolution supports the market's emphasis on 34°C (36% implied) and nearby outcomes. Historical early-September baselines average near 30–32°C, but the current warm anomaly and stable steering pattern elevate odds for the upper end of that range while keeping extremes below 30°C or above 36°C unlikely. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$574結束日期
2026-09-04市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models (including ECMWF and GFS) indicate Chengdu's September 4 high will likely peak between 32–34°C under continued influence of the subtropical high, producing mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions with light winds and minimal precipitation in the urban basin. Recent days have seen maxima of 33–34°C, and the absence of a strong cold front or significant cloud build-up before resolution supports the market's emphasis on 34°C (36% implied) and nearby outcomes. Historical early-September baselines average near 30–32°C, but the current warm anomaly and stable steering pattern elevate odds for the upper end of that range while keeping extremes below 30°C or above 36°C unlikely. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions