Recent model consensus from sources like GFS and agency outlooks positions Manila's September 1 maximum near 30–32°C, reflecting typical southwest monsoon patterns that deliver high humidity, frequent afternoon thunderstorms, and partial cloud cover moderating peak solar heating. Historical baselines for early September average around 29–31°C, with urban heat island effects in Metro Manila occasionally pushing readings 1–2°C higher on clearer intervals. The market's heaviest weighting on 32°C aligns with the upper end of short-range ensemble guidance showing potential for brief breaks in convection, while lower probabilities for 33°C+ reflect persistent moisture and wind shear limiting extreme outliers. Updated PAGASA and international model runs over the next 48 hours will refine resolution criteria tied to official observations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月1日馬尼拉的最高溫度？
9月1日馬尼拉的最高溫度？
32°C 44%
31°C 22%
33°C 20%
30°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-09-01
26°C或以下
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
4%
30°C
10%
31°C
22%
32°C
44%
33°C
20%
34°C
2%
35°C
<1%
36°C或更高
<1%
32°C 44%
31°C 22%
33°C 20%
30°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-09-01
26°C或以下
$224 交易量
<1%
27°C
$11 交易量
<1%
28°C
$0 交易量
1%
29°C
$31 交易量
4%
30°C
$108 交易量
10%
31°C
$64 交易量
22%
32°C
$274 交易量
44%
33°C
$53 交易量
20%
34°C
$1 交易量
2%
35°C
$1 交易量
<1%
36°C或更高
$122 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like GFS and agency outlooks positions Manila's September 1 maximum near 30–32°C, reflecting typical southwest monsoon patterns that deliver high humidity, frequent afternoon thunderstorms, and partial cloud cover moderating peak solar heating. Historical baselines for early September average around 29–31°C, with urban heat island effects in Metro Manila occasionally pushing readings 1–2°C higher on clearer intervals. The market's heaviest weighting on 32°C aligns with the upper end of short-range ensemble guidance showing potential for brief breaks in convection, while lower probabilities for 33°C+ reflect persistent moisture and wind shear limiting extreme outliers. Updated PAGASA and international model runs over the next 48 hours will refine resolution criteria tied to official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 30, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
交易量
$889結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Aug 30, 2026, 12:58 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like GFS and agency outlooks positions Manila's September 1 maximum near 30–32°C, reflecting typical southwest monsoon patterns that deliver high humidity, frequent afternoon thunderstorms, and partial cloud cover moderating peak solar heating. Historical baselines for early September average around 29–31°C, with urban heat island effects in Metro Manila occasionally pushing readings 1–2°C higher on clearer intervals. The market's heaviest weighting on 32°C aligns with the upper end of short-range ensemble guidance showing potential for brief breaks in convection, while lower probabilities for 33°C+ reflect persistent moisture and wind shear limiting extreme outliers. Updated PAGASA and international model runs over the next 48 hours will refine resolution criteria tied to official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$889結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Aug 30, 2026, 12:58 AM ETRecent model consensus from sources like GFS and agency outlooks positions Manila's September 1 maximum near 30–32°C, reflecting typical southwest monsoon patterns that deliver high humidity, frequent afternoon thunderstorms, and partial cloud cover moderating peak solar heating. Historical baselines for early September average around 29–31°C, with urban heat island effects in Metro Manila occasionally pushing readings 1–2°C higher on clearer intervals. The market's heaviest weighting on 32°C aligns with the upper end of short-range ensemble guidance showing potential for brief breaks in convection, while lower probabilities for 33°C+ reflect persistent moisture and wind shear limiting extreme outliers. Updated PAGASA and international model runs over the next 48 hours will refine resolution criteria tied to official observations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions