Recent numerical weather prediction consensus from sources including Météo-France analogs, ECMWF, and Met Office guidance points to a maximum temperature of 24–25°C in Paris on August 30, driven by persistent cloud cover, southwesterly flow of mild Atlantic air, and limited daytime insolation after a period of unsettled conditions and cooling. This aligns closely with the long-term August 30 climatological average high of 24°C while reflecting a post-heat spell moderation that has kept recent daily maxima near 22–23°C. Ensemble spread remains modest for this 48-hour horizon, supporting the market’s concentration of implied probability on 24°C (39.5%) and 25°C (28.0%), with lower odds on 23°C reflecting residual model uncertainty around exact cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing. Updated model runs over the next 24 hours will provide the primary near-term catalyst for any probability shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月30日巴黎最高溫度？
8月30日巴黎最高溫度？
24°C 39%
25°C 28%
23°C 19%
26°C 8%
最新
最新
2026-08-30
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
6%
23°C
19%
24°C
39%
25°C
28%
26°C
8%
27°C or higher
4%
24°C 39%
25°C 28%
23°C 19%
26°C 8%
最新
最新
2026-08-30
17°C or below
$1,194 交易量
<1%
18°C
$188 交易量
<1%
19°C
$198 交易量
<1%
20°C
$50 交易量
1%
21°C
$0 交易量
1%
22°C
$46 交易量
6%
23°C
$26 交易量
19%
24°C
$42 交易量
39%
25°C
$68 交易量
28%
26°C
$151 交易量
8%
27°C or higher
$0 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction consensus from sources including Météo-France analogs, ECMWF, and Met Office guidance points to a maximum temperature of 24–25°C in Paris on August 30, driven by persistent cloud cover, southwesterly flow of mild Atlantic air, and limited daytime insolation after a period of unsettled conditions and cooling. This aligns closely with the long-term August 30 climatological average high of 24°C while reflecting a post-heat spell moderation that has kept recent daily maxima near 22–23°C. Ensemble spread remains modest for this 48-hour horizon, supporting the market’s concentration of implied probability on 24°C (39.5%) and 25°C (28.0%), with lower odds on 23°C reflecting residual model uncertainty around exact cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing. Updated model runs over the next 24 hours will provide the primary near-term catalyst for any probability shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 28, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
交易量
$1,963結束日期
2026-08-30市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 12:55 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction consensus from sources including Météo-France analogs, ECMWF, and Met Office guidance points to a maximum temperature of 24–25°C in Paris on August 30, driven by persistent cloud cover, southwesterly flow of mild Atlantic air, and limited daytime insolation after a period of unsettled conditions and cooling. This aligns closely with the long-term August 30 climatological average high of 24°C while reflecting a post-heat spell moderation that has kept recent daily maxima near 22–23°C. Ensemble spread remains modest for this 48-hour horizon, supporting the market’s concentration of implied probability on 24°C (39.5%) and 25°C (28.0%), with lower odds on 23°C reflecting residual model uncertainty around exact cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing. Updated model runs over the next 24 hours will provide the primary near-term catalyst for any probability shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,963結束日期
2026-08-30市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 12:55 AM ETRecent numerical weather prediction consensus from sources including Météo-France analogs, ECMWF, and Met Office guidance points to a maximum temperature of 24–25°C in Paris on August 30, driven by persistent cloud cover, southwesterly flow of mild Atlantic air, and limited daytime insolation after a period of unsettled conditions and cooling. This aligns closely with the long-term August 30 climatological average high of 24°C while reflecting a post-heat spell moderation that has kept recent daily maxima near 22–23°C. Ensemble spread remains modest for this 48-hour horizon, supporting the market’s concentration of implied probability on 24°C (39.5%) and 25°C (28.0%), with lower odds on 23°C reflecting residual model uncertainty around exact cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing. Updated model runs over the next 24 hours will provide the primary near-term catalyst for any probability shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions