Persistent heavy rainfall and thick cloud cover from the enhanced southwest monsoon (habagat) are the main factors capping Manila's daytime highs for August 30, favoring market-implied probabilities clustered around 29–31°C. Official PAGASA guidance and multiple forecast models indicate monsoon rains with 80–100% precipitation chances, strong southwesterly winds, and widespread overcast skies that limit insolation and suppress temperatures below the typical 31°C August average. A developing strong El Niño adds longer-term context for altered rainfall patterns but reinforces near-term habagat enhancement over western Luzon. Recent flooding and red rainfall warnings on August 29 confirm these conditions are already established, with limited model spread pointing to modest warming only if breaks in clouds occur. Traders appear to weigh the high likelihood of continued suppression against modest upside if monsoon intensity eases slightly overnight.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月30日馬尼拉的最高溫度？
8月30日馬尼拉的最高溫度？
30°C 41%
29°C 28%
31°C 18%
28°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-30
24°C或以下
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
5%
28°C
10%
29°C
28%
30°C
41%
31°C
18%
32°C
4%
33°C
<1%
34°C或更高
<1%
30°C 41%
29°C 28%
31°C 18%
28°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-30
24°C或以下
$161 交易量
<1%
25°C
$401 交易量
<1%
26°C
$339 交易量
<1%
27°C
$312 交易量
5%
28°C
$961 交易量
10%
29°C
$2,475 交易量
28%
30°C
$1,872 交易量
41%
31°C
$413 交易量
18%
32°C
$573 交易量
4%
33°C
$32 交易量
<1%
34°C或更高
$215 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent heavy rainfall and thick cloud cover from the enhanced southwest monsoon (habagat) are the main factors capping Manila's daytime highs for August 30, favoring market-implied probabilities clustered around 29–31°C. Official PAGASA guidance and multiple forecast models indicate monsoon rains with 80–100% precipitation chances, strong southwesterly winds, and widespread overcast skies that limit insolation and suppress temperatures below the typical 31°C August average. A developing strong El Niño adds longer-term context for altered rainfall patterns but reinforces near-term habagat enhancement over western Luzon. Recent flooding and red rainfall warnings on August 29 confirm these conditions are already established, with limited model spread pointing to modest warming only if breaks in clouds occur. Traders appear to weigh the high likelihood of continued suppression against modest upside if monsoon intensity eases slightly overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 28, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
交易量
$7,755結束日期
2026-08-30市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 12:58 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent heavy rainfall and thick cloud cover from the enhanced southwest monsoon (habagat) are the main factors capping Manila's daytime highs for August 30, favoring market-implied probabilities clustered around 29–31°C. Official PAGASA guidance and multiple forecast models indicate monsoon rains with 80–100% precipitation chances, strong southwesterly winds, and widespread overcast skies that limit insolation and suppress temperatures below the typical 31°C August average. A developing strong El Niño adds longer-term context for altered rainfall patterns but reinforces near-term habagat enhancement over western Luzon. Recent flooding and red rainfall warnings on August 29 confirm these conditions are already established, with limited model spread pointing to modest warming only if breaks in clouds occur. Traders appear to weigh the high likelihood of continued suppression against modest upside if monsoon intensity eases slightly overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$7,755結束日期
2026-08-30市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 12:58 AM ETPersistent heavy rainfall and thick cloud cover from the enhanced southwest monsoon (habagat) are the main factors capping Manila's daytime highs for August 30, favoring market-implied probabilities clustered around 29–31°C. Official PAGASA guidance and multiple forecast models indicate monsoon rains with 80–100% precipitation chances, strong southwesterly winds, and widespread overcast skies that limit insolation and suppress temperatures below the typical 31°C August average. A developing strong El Niño adds longer-term context for altered rainfall patterns but reinforces near-term habagat enhancement over western Luzon. Recent flooding and red rainfall warnings on August 29 confirm these conditions are already established, with limited model spread pointing to modest warming only if breaks in clouds occur. Traders appear to weigh the high likelihood of continued suppression against modest upside if monsoon intensity eases slightly overnight.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions