Recent forecast guidance from agencies including the Met Office and regional models shows Warsaw’s August 29 maximum most likely reaching 21–22 °C. A weakening high-pressure ridge is yielding to an approaching Atlantic front, with southerly then southwesterly flow advecting cooler, moister air and increasing low- to mid-level cloud cover that limits daytime insolation. Light rain or showers are expected during the afternoon, further suppressing peak temperatures relative to the 26–28 °C readings observed on August 28. Ensemble spreads remain narrow around this range, producing the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities between 21 °C and 22 °C while assigning low weight to outliers above 24 °C or below 19 °C.