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icon for 萊茵河何時會恢復正常水位？
氣候與科學·歐洲

萊茵河何時會恢復正常水位？

icon for 萊茵河何時會恢復正常水位？
氣候與科學·歐洲

萊茵河何時會恢復正常水位？

在2026年9月1日之前 100.0%

2026年9月1日至14日 <1%

2026年9月15日－30日 <1%

2026年10月1日至31日 <1%

Polymarket

$114,890 交易量

在2026年9月1日之前 100.0%

2026年9月1日至14日 <1%

2026年9月15日－30日 <1%

2026年10月1日至31日 <1%

Polymarket

$114,890 交易量

在2026年9月1日之前

$29,262 交易量

是

2026年9月1日至14日

$27,841 交易量

否

2026年9月15日－30日

$20,397 交易量

否

2026年10月1日至31日

$21,235 交易量

否

未於2026年11月1日前恢復

$16,154 交易量

否

This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market. "Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution. The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period. The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent rainfall across southern Germany and the Alpine headwaters has begun lifting Rhine gauge readings from mid-August record lows, with Kaub rising from near 10 cm to around 70 cm and similar modest gains at other stations. Traders appear to price in additional precipitation and typical late-summer inflows as sufficient to restore normal navigation depths within days, producing near-certain consensus on a return before September 1. Persistent low-water constraints still limit fully loaded barges and force partial loads or modal shifts, yet the market reflects expectations of quick stabilization. Extended dry weather, below-average upstream runoff, or delayed seasonal rains could realistically push recovery into mid-September or later.

This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market.

"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.

The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.

The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market. "Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution. The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period. The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$114,890
結束日期
2026-11-01
市場開放時間
Aug 11, 2026, 11:08 AM ET

結算來源

https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100

結算方

0x69c47De9D...

已提議結果: 是

無爭議

最終結果: 是

This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market. "Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution. The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period. The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent rainfall across southern Germany and the Alpine headwaters has begun lifting Rhine gauge readings from mid-August record lows, with Kaub rising from near 10 cm to around 70 cm and similar modest gains at other stations. Traders appear to price in additional precipitation and typical late-summer inflows as sufficient to restore normal navigation depths within days, producing near-certain consensus on a return before September 1. Persistent low-water constraints still limit fully loaded barges and force partial loads or modal shifts, yet the market reflects expectations of quick stabilization. Extended dry weather, below-average upstream runoff, or delayed seasonal rains could realistically push recovery into mid-September or later.

This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market.

"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.

The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.

The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market. "Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution. The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period. The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$114,890
結束日期
2026-11-01
市場開放時間
Aug 11, 2026, 11:08 AM ET

結算來源

https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100

結算方

0x69c47De9D...

已提議結果: 是

無爭議

最終結果: 是

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Frequently Asked Questions

"萊茵河何時會恢復正常水位？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "在2026年9月1日之前" at 100%, followed by "2026年9月1日至14日" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "萊茵河何時會恢復正常水位？" has generated $114.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "萊茵河何時會恢復正常水位？," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "萊茵河何時會恢復正常水位？" is "在2026年9月1日之前" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "2026年9月1日至14日" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "萊茵河何時會恢復正常水位？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.