Traders assign the highest probabilities to 24°C and 25°C for Tokyo’s maximum temperature on September 6, reflecting tight agreement among short-range ensemble forecasts amid modest uncertainty. Recent weakening of the subtropical high and increasing onshore flow are expected to limit daytime heating relative to late-summer climatology, while variable cloud cover and wind shifts create the narrow spread between those two outcomes. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models shows limited diurnal range under these conditions, with resolution depending on the precise timing of any frontal passage or marine layer development. New model runs and observational updates will likely refine the market-implied odds ahead of the event.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月6日東京氣溫最高？
9月6日東京氣溫最高？
24°C 34%
25°C 31%
23°C 16%
26°C 14%
最新
最新
2026-09-06
19°C或以下
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
3%
22°C
4%
23°C
16%
24°C
34%
25°C
31%
26°C
14%
27°C
4%
28°C
2%
29°C或以上
2%
24°C 34%
25°C 31%
23°C 16%
26°C 14%
最新
最新
2026-09-06
19°C或以下
$1 交易量
1%
20°C
$114 交易量
1%
21°C
$168 交易量
3%
22°C
$59 交易量
4%
23°C
$330 交易量
16%
24°C
$141 交易量
34%
25°C
$379 交易量
31%
26°C
$58 交易量
14%
27°C
$225 交易量
4%
28°C
$28 交易量
2%
29°C或以上
$0 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest probabilities to 24°C and 25°C for Tokyo’s maximum temperature on September 6, reflecting tight agreement among short-range ensemble forecasts amid modest uncertainty. Recent weakening of the subtropical high and increasing onshore flow are expected to limit daytime heating relative to late-summer climatology, while variable cloud cover and wind shifts create the narrow spread between those two outcomes. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models shows limited diurnal range under these conditions, with resolution depending on the precise timing of any frontal passage or marine layer development. New model runs and observational updates will likely refine the market-implied odds ahead of the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 4, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$1,503結束日期
2026-09-06市場開放時間
Sep 4, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest probabilities to 24°C and 25°C for Tokyo’s maximum temperature on September 6, reflecting tight agreement among short-range ensemble forecasts amid modest uncertainty. Recent weakening of the subtropical high and increasing onshore flow are expected to limit daytime heating relative to late-summer climatology, while variable cloud cover and wind shifts create the narrow spread between those two outcomes. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models shows limited diurnal range under these conditions, with resolution depending on the precise timing of any frontal passage or marine layer development. New model runs and observational updates will likely refine the market-implied odds ahead of the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,503結束日期
2026-09-06市場開放時間
Sep 4, 2026, 12:56 AM ETTraders assign the highest probabilities to 24°C and 25°C for Tokyo’s maximum temperature on September 6, reflecting tight agreement among short-range ensemble forecasts amid modest uncertainty. Recent weakening of the subtropical high and increasing onshore flow are expected to limit daytime heating relative to late-summer climatology, while variable cloud cover and wind shifts create the narrow spread between those two outcomes. Official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models shows limited diurnal range under these conditions, with resolution depending on the precise timing of any frontal passage or marine layer development. New model runs and observational updates will likely refine the market-implied odds ahead of the event.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions