Official National Weather Service observations recorded a daily maximum of 100°F at Dallas/Fort Worth on September 5, 2026, exceeding the normal high of 93°F by 8°F under clear skies, southerly flow near 7 mph, and negligible precipitation. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 98-99°F bin because pre-event model consensus from the GFS and local guidance projected peak temperatures in that range, consistent with climatological September patterns and the absence of strong warm advection or downslope enhancement. The slim probability assigned to 100-101°F reflects realistic uncertainty in afternoon mixing depth and boundary-layer heating, which can produce 1-3°F variations between forecast and verified readings at the official station. Updated model runs and real-time mesonet data would be the key catalysts capable of shifting the narrow remaining uncertainty before final resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月5日達拉斯的最高溫度？
9月5日達拉斯的最高溫度？
98-99°F 100.0%
85°F或以下 <1%
86-87°F <1%
88-89°F <1%
$61,772 交易量
$61,772 交易量
2026-09-05
85°F或以下
否
86-87°F
否
88-89°F
否
90-91°F
否
92-93°F
否
94-95°F
否
96-97°F
否
98-99°F
是
100-101°F
否
102-103°F
否
華氏104度或更高
否
98-99°F 100.0%
85°F或以下 <1%
86-87°F <1%
88-89°F <1%
$61,772 交易量
$61,772 交易量
2026-09-05
85°F或以下
$1,394 交易量
否
86-87°F
$298 交易量
否
88-89°F
$442 交易量
否
90-91°F
$436 交易量
否
92-93°F
$1,286 交易量
否
94-95°F
$15,976 交易量
否
96-97°F
$11,754 交易量
否
98-99°F
$10,918 交易量
是
100-101°F
$9,103 交易量
否
102-103°F
$6,618 交易量
否
華氏104度或更高
$3,546 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service observations recorded a daily maximum of 100°F at Dallas/Fort Worth on September 5, 2026, exceeding the normal high of 93°F by 8°F under clear skies, southerly flow near 7 mph, and negligible precipitation. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 98-99°F bin because pre-event model consensus from the GFS and local guidance projected peak temperatures in that range, consistent with climatological September patterns and the absence of strong warm advection or downslope enhancement. The slim probability assigned to 100-101°F reflects realistic uncertainty in afternoon mixing depth and boundary-layer heating, which can produce 1-3°F variations between forecast and verified readings at the official station. Updated model runs and real-time mesonet data would be the key catalysts capable of shifting the narrow remaining uncertainty before final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 3, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
交易量
$61,772結束日期
2026-09-05市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 2:56 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service observations recorded a daily maximum of 100°F at Dallas/Fort Worth on September 5, 2026, exceeding the normal high of 93°F by 8°F under clear skies, southerly flow near 7 mph, and negligible precipitation. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 98-99°F bin because pre-event model consensus from the GFS and local guidance projected peak temperatures in that range, consistent with climatological September patterns and the absence of strong warm advection or downslope enhancement. The slim probability assigned to 100-101°F reflects realistic uncertainty in afternoon mixing depth and boundary-layer heating, which can produce 1-3°F variations between forecast and verified readings at the official station. Updated model runs and real-time mesonet data would be the key catalysts capable of shifting the narrow remaining uncertainty before final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$61,772結束日期
2026-09-05市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 2:56 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Official National Weather Service observations recorded a daily maximum of 100°F at Dallas/Fort Worth on September 5, 2026, exceeding the normal high of 93°F by 8°F under clear skies, southerly flow near 7 mph, and negligible precipitation. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 98-99°F bin because pre-event model consensus from the GFS and local guidance projected peak temperatures in that range, consistent with climatological September patterns and the absence of strong warm advection or downslope enhancement. The slim probability assigned to 100-101°F reflects realistic uncertainty in afternoon mixing depth and boundary-layer heating, which can produce 1-3°F variations between forecast and verified readings at the official station. Updated model runs and real-time mesonet data would be the key catalysts capable of shifting the narrow remaining uncertainty before final resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions