Persistent rainfall and extensive cloud cover driven by northeasterly flow have suppressed daytime heating across Tokyo on September 16, anchoring the maximum temperature near 23°C according to Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble model consensus. High humidity near 90% combined with steady precipitation has limited surface insolation, preventing the warmer conditions seen earlier in the month. Trader consensus at 99.6% implied probability for 23°C reflects this stable synoptic pattern and tight forecast agreement. A rapid clearing of clouds or unexpected wind shift allowing greater solar input could push readings slightly higher, though current observations and model runs indicate low likelihood of such deviation before the daily maximum is recorded.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月16日東京氣溫最高？
9月16日東京氣溫最高？
23°C 99.3%
24°C <1%
26°C <1%
25°C <1%
$107,746 交易量
$107,746 交易量
2026-09-16
19°C或以下
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
99%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C或以上
<1%
23°C 99.3%
24°C <1%
26°C <1%
25°C <1%
$107,746 交易量
$107,746 交易量
2026-09-16
19°C或以下
$1,620 交易量
<1%
20°C
$1,854 交易量
<1%
21°C
$2,276 交易量
<1%
22°C
$34,589 交易量
<1%
23°C
$11,140 交易量
99%
24°C
$10,165 交易量
<1%
25°C
$30,468 交易量
<1%
26°C
$6,206 交易量
<1%
27°C
$2,090 交易量
<1%
28°C
$3,039 交易量
<1%
29°C或以上
$4,300 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rainfall and extensive cloud cover driven by northeasterly flow have suppressed daytime heating across Tokyo on September 16, anchoring the maximum temperature near 23°C according to Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble model consensus. High humidity near 90% combined with steady precipitation has limited surface insolation, preventing the warmer conditions seen earlier in the month. Trader consensus at 99.6% implied probability for 23°C reflects this stable synoptic pattern and tight forecast agreement. A rapid clearing of clouds or unexpected wind shift allowing greater solar input could push readings slightly higher, though current observations and model runs indicate low likelihood of such deviation before the daily maximum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$107,746結束日期
2026-09-16市場開放時間
Sep 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rainfall and extensive cloud cover driven by northeasterly flow have suppressed daytime heating across Tokyo on September 16, anchoring the maximum temperature near 23°C according to Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble model consensus. High humidity near 90% combined with steady precipitation has limited surface insolation, preventing the warmer conditions seen earlier in the month. Trader consensus at 99.6% implied probability for 23°C reflects this stable synoptic pattern and tight forecast agreement. A rapid clearing of clouds or unexpected wind shift allowing greater solar input could push readings slightly higher, though current observations and model runs indicate low likelihood of such deviation before the daily maximum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$107,746結束日期
2026-09-16市場開放時間
Sep 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETPersistent rainfall and extensive cloud cover driven by northeasterly flow have suppressed daytime heating across Tokyo on September 16, anchoring the maximum temperature near 23°C according to Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble model consensus. High humidity near 90% combined with steady precipitation has limited surface insolation, preventing the warmer conditions seen earlier in the month. Trader consensus at 99.6% implied probability for 23°C reflects this stable synoptic pattern and tight forecast agreement. A rapid clearing of clouds or unexpected wind shift allowing greater solar input could push readings slightly higher, though current observations and model runs indicate low likelihood of such deviation before the daily maximum is recorded.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions